Friday's Fantasy Feast: Early Top 12 TE Ranks!

***These are my own opinions of fantasy football. As I do work for BrunoBoys.net, these ranking are in no way associated with Bruno Boys. What your about to read and any fantasy information I write about here going forward is of my opinion only***

Will Gates be the #1 option in 2011?

So we again have no movement on the CBA and are waiting for Judge Doty's decesion April 6th but fantasy is still on my brain and most every fantasy player. So lets go over the fantasy tight end position in 2011.

Was there a position in fantasy football last year that gave more owners headaches than the tight end? I mean we had major injuries to Dallas Clark and Jermichael Finley, minor nagging one to Antonio Gates, Zach Miller and Owen Daniels and then the Patriots Gronkowski vs. Hernandez debacle and it was just an all-around mess.

Heading into 2010 I think everyone though that the tight end position was one that would be full of production as 2009 gave us 10 players over 100 fantasy points but only 5 did that last year. I think 2011 the position as a whole gets better, of course as long as injuries move to a different position ;), because the position is so very deep. Obviously we have a few must start regardless options but then there are so many decent guys at there in decent situations that this position will be a hotly debated weekly start/sit nightmare between options.

But like my quarterback rankings, the good news is of course that there are more than 12 decent TE1’s out there so every team in standard 10 to 12 team drafts should be able land a guy that they can get production from and also get a good reserve option who may just become a prime tight end in the league.

Before I get to my top 12 tight end rankings for next season, it’s imperative to analyze last year’s preseason top 12 and actual top 12 tight ends in standard scoring leagues. (10 rush & receiving yards = 1 point, 1 touchdown = 6 points.) I used ESPN preseason projections; I know some may not like their rankings but the 12 guys on this list were pretty much the 12tight ends most had anyway; just ordered a bit differently.

Reminder: Making rankings at all are nothing more than educated guesses; no one can ever be 100% positive on where guys will fall by year’s end as there are so many factors, and in March no less they are pretty useless, but fantasy football aficionados everywhere (like me) love to hear where people are valued compared to where you yourself value them.

ESPN 2010 Projected Top 12 Tight End’s

1. Dallas Clark, Indianpolis Colts

2. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

3. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers

4. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers

5. Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles

6. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons

7. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

8. Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9. Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins

10. Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings

11. Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders

12. Owen Daniels, Houston Texans

Actual 2010 Top 12 Fantasy Tight End’s

1. Jason Witten, Cowboys – 94 Rec, 1002 Rec Yds, 9 TD, 128 Tar, 146 Fan Pts.

2. Antonio Gates, Chargers – 50 Rec, 782 Rec Yds, 10 TD, 66 Tar, 134 Fan Pts.

3. Vernon Davis, 49ers – 56 Rec, 914 Rec Yds, 7 TD, 93 Tar, 129 Fan Pts.

4. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars – 58 Rec, 700 Rec Yds, 10 TD, 88 Tar, 119 Fan Pts.

5. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – 42 Rec, 546 Rec Yds, 10 TD, 59 Tar, 107 Fan Pts.

6. Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers – 66 Rec, 730 Rec Yds, 5 TD, 98 Tar, 96 Fan Pts.

7. Chris Cooley, Redskins – 77 Rec, 849 Rec Yds, 3 TD, 127 Tar, 96 Fan Pts.

8. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons – 70 Rec, 656 Rec Yds, 6 TD, 111 Tar, 94 Fan Pts.

9. Zach Miller, Raiders – 60 Rec, 685 Rec Yds, 5 TD, 91 Tar, 90 Fan Pts.

10. Dustin Keller, Jets – 55 Rec, 687 Rec Yds, 5 TD, 101 Tar, 89 Fan Pts.

11. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – 45 Rec, 563 Rec Yds, 6 TD, 64 Tar, 89 Fan Pts.

12a. Benjamin Watson, Browns – 68 Rec, 763 Rec Yds, 3 TD, 102 Tar, 88 Fan Pts.

12b. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions – 71 Rec, 722 Rec Yds, 4 TD, 111 Tar, 88 Fan Pts.

 So 7 of the 12 projected best fantasy options finished in the top 12 but I still have to believe that had Dallas Clark and Jermichael Finley not gone down so early that they would esily have been fantasy factors in 2010. One of the biggest things I did notice about the position as a whole was the sheer drop off from only one season ago.

Heading into 2010, the tight end position seemed like one that was full of more than enough decent options and not having an elite guy wasn’t that detrimental to your season but in 2010 it turns out it was. In 2009, a total of 10 tight ends finished with more than 100 fantasy points while only 5 did that in 2010. Granted lots of guy were close enough, but still, the tight end position clearly wasn’t as big a factor in the NFL as us fantasy lovers would of liked it to be.

That said, I personally believe the tight end position will make a comeback next year and in a big way. With all the players that got injured last year and the amount of decent youngsters like Tony Moeaki, Jermaine Gresham and Michael Hoomanawanui coming into their own and Dallas Clark, Jermichael Finley and Owen Daniels getting healthy again, there should be very decent options at nearly every round in all 10 to 12 team standard fantasy drafts in 2011.

So that said, let’s get to my top 12 fantasy tight ends for 2011…in March.

1. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers, 6’5” 247 lbs, 23 Yrs Old, 4^th Season.

He'll finally be the stat BEAST we all want him to be!

Heading into 2010, Jermichael Finley was mostly a hype machine, but up until he got injured in Week 4 he was definitely living up to all of it. In the 4 games he did play for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers was obviously in love with him. If you watched any of those games, Finley was being targeted over and over and was able to record 2 games of over 103 receiving yards and got a touchdown in one of those. After winning the Super Bowl, Aaron Rodgers flat out said that he couldn’t wait to get back the “best tight end in football.” In that offense, with such an accurate quarterback, I think Finley is going to finally have the type of year fantasy owners salivate over. Don’t let him get by you in round 4 of 2011 fantasy drafts, he’s the real deal.

2. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers, 6’4” 260 lbs, 30 Yrs Old, 9^th Season.

It’s hard not to fall in love with Antonio Gates as for the last seven seasons he’s been nothing short of fantastic. Despite playing in only 10 games while battling a bum ankle, he was on pace to have arguably his best season to date. He had 50 receptions for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in those 10 games and finished as the league’s second best tight end overall! Pretty incredible. What’s even better about that is he did it while Vincent Jackson was gone and Malcolm Floyd was battling injury so teams had the opportunity to focus in him….and it didn’t matter. Gates is aging though and will be 31 heading into next year. He plays with a great quarterback and a perfect system for him but Rivers will be getting Jackson and Floyd back which could potentially cut into his production. I still love him and wouldn’t let him get out of round 4 in all drafts in 2011, despite the age, I think he has, at the very least, one more dominant season.

3. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys, 6’6” 263 lbs, 28 Yrs Old, 9^th Season.

So quarterback Tony Romo goes down for the year, the Cowboys fire head coach Wade Phillips mid season and Cowboys have a terrible season overall but what does Jason Witten do? Has only his best statistical season ever. He caught 94 balls on 128 targets for 1030 yards and a career high 9 touchdowns. This was his second consecutive 94 catch season and remarkably his seventh consecutive season playing in all 16 games. I expect new head coach Jason Garrett to keep Witten heavily involved in the Cowboys offense next year and with coverage’s being forced to target Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, he should have a lot of free running room across the middle and put up another fantastic season. He’s very reliable and should be taken late 4^th, early 5^th round in all 2011 fantasy drafts.

4. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts, 6’3” 252 lbs, 31 Yrs Old, 9^th Season.

Peyton will still have man crush on Dallas in 2011.

After finishing 2009 with 100 catches and 1106 yards, poor Dallas Clark caught the injury bug in Week 6 of 2010, missing the rest of the season. Despite turning 32 years old and coming off of injury, its hard to rank Dallas Clark any lower than this seeing as Peyton Manning is throwing him the ball. Before going down, Clark was well on his way to another great season having caught 37 balls (6 per game) for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns. I don’t expect Jacob Tamme to get much run while Clark is still on the team and would be hard pressed to jump on anyone ranked lower than him if he is still available. Peyton Manning will throw and he certainly will send many a ball Clarke’s way in 2011. Figure on taking Clark with a late 4^th, early 5^th round pick in all 2011 fantasy drafts.

5. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers, 6’3” 250 lbs, 27 Yrs Old, 6^th Season.

Vernon Davis had a sensational fantasy season in 2011 by going over 900 yards receiving for the second straight time. It was a little discerning that he caught only 56 receptions to his 78 the year before and that attributed to his touchdowns going from 13 in 2009 to 7 in 2010. Vernon Davis is a genetic freak as we all can see and easily the best receiving option the 49ers have, the only problem is whose throwing him the ball. As of today, new head coach Jim Harbaugh has said that Alex Smith is the starter in San Fran in 2011 and although he will certainly get Davis a good amount of catches, I think we would all love to see what a competent quarterback would be able to do for Davis. As good as Davis is, he is also very inconsistent as in 16 games last year he finished with 7 or fewer fantasy points and put up a goose egg in two of them. So while he will get you those dominant games, he could also kill your week as well. Figure Davis to be taken early to middle of the 5^th round of all 2011 fantasy drafts.

***Those are the top 5 clear cut fantasy tight ends and getting one of them on your roster is like adding a top tier wide receiver. Obviously there are injury concerns with three of them, but talent and history outweigh the risk. The rest of the tight ends I’m about to list have all the potential in the world and will hopefully help make the tight end position the deepest its ever been in 2011 allowing all 10 to 12 team fantasy leagues have a decent option.***

6. Owen Daniels, Houston Texans, 6’3” 250 lbs, 28 Yrs Old, 6^th Season.

After playing in only 8 games in 2009 and 11 games last year, it’s hard to want to have to rely on such a brittle option at tight end but Owen Daniels really closed out 2010 with a surge. In his final 4 games he had 22 catches for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns and showed that he can still be a viable fantasy option. Matt Schaub is a very good quarterback and the Texans still have a good amount of offensive firepower around Daniels and he should be the number two option in their passing game in 2011. Obviously there is risk with him so drafting a backup in the later rounds is worth your while, but if Daniels can remain healthy, he should have a great fantasy year. Look for him to come off of boards from the middle of the 6^th to middle of 7^th rounds in all fantasy drafts.

7. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions, 6’5” 265 lbs, 26 Yrs Old, 3^rd Season.

Pettigrew has all the tools to be a big threat in 2011.

After injuries ended his rookie campaign, Brandon Pettigrew proved to the Lions they didn’t waste a first round pick on him with an excellent 2011 campaign, by Lions standards. With Mathew Stafford sidelined with another shoulder injury, Pettigrew caught 71 balls for 722 yards and 4 touchdowns on 111 targets. If Stafford can have finally have a full season, there is no reason to believe Pettigrew isn’t going to be able to become an elite tight end in the NFL. That may be wishful thinking but far from out of the scope of possibility. He has the size, speed and hands to be a dominate option and I believe he gets better than last year’s numbers. Look to draft Pettigrew in round 7 of all drafts in 2011.

8. Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders, 6’5” 255 lbs, 25 Yrs Old, 5^th Season.

Despite battling injuries for most of 2010, Zach Miller still had a great season catching 60 passes for 685 yards and 5 touchdowns. Had he not been injured he would have finished with more but still did enough to make the Pro Bowl. The Raiders are definitely a team on the rise and offensive coordinator turned head coach Hue Jackson did wonders for quarterback Jason Campbell in 2010. Being that the Raiders have no quality number one wide receiving options, Zach Miller should still be the prime target in the passing game going into 2011 and is a quality TE1. With the Raiders getting better I expect Miller to do so as well and hes worth a pick in round 7 or 8 of all drafts in 2011.

9. Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints, 6’6” 260 lbs, 24 Yrs Old, 2^nd Season.

The Sleeper TE of 2011, and worth drafting. 

In only his rookie season, tight end Jimmy Graham impressed Saints head coach Sean Payton so much that they released veteran Jeremy Shockey this offseason. That’s a bold statement for a team to do that but 3^rd round pick Jimmy Graham is not someone to take lightly in drafts. He has the size and can catch but more importantly has one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Drew Brees and an offense that relies on its aerial attack. Graham should shine next season as the Saints look to get back into championship form and should be Drew Brees’ second option in the passing game behind wide receiver Marques Colston. I expect him to catch around 75 balls and be a prime target in the red zone. Jimmy Graham is a big sleeper for next year and is worth a pick in rounds 7 or 8 of fantasy drafts.

10. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots, 6’6” 265 lbs, 21 Yrs Old, 2^nd Season.

What a season rookie Rob Gronkowski had for the Patriots in 2010 huh? Despite having 8 games in which he only caught 1 pass, he finished with 42 receptions for 546 yards and 10 touchdowns, good for 5^th best tight end in fantasy football. The best part about the Gronk’s season was that most of the production came later in the year which leads me to believe he fell more into coach Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady’s favor than fellow rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez. Although Hernandez is still a threat, the Gronk is the Patriots tight end to own in 2011 for his red zone potential alone. I expect him to increase his numbers next year and be much more reliable. Expect to take Gronkowski with an 8^th or 9^th round pick in 2011 fantasy drafts.

11. Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars, 6’6” 275 lbs, 26 Yrs Old, 6^th Season.

The Jaguars slapped a franchise tag on Marcedes Lewis this offseason and could look to sign him to a long term deal, as they should. Lewis was there best receiving threat in 2010 with his size, pass catching ability and red zone prowess catching 58 balls for 700 yards and 10 touchdowns. He finished the year as the 4^th best fantasy tight end and with receiver Mike Sims-Walker on the outs, I expect Lewis to continue to produce despite playing for maybe the most boring team in all of football. Someone has to catch balls for David Garrard and being that they should play from behind more often than not, I like Marcedes Lewis as a quality TE1 for 2011 and is worth drafting with an 8^th or 9^th round pick in all drafts in 2011.

12. Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6’4” 240 lbs, 27 Yrs Old,, 8^th Season.

Winslow should grow in 2011 with growing Bucs. 

Kellen Winslow hasn’t ever had the kind of season he showed us in 2007 when he went for 82 catches, 1106 yards but with the rise of the Buccaneers in 2010, Winslow may be able to at the very least get better. Last year he had a very good season catching 66 passes, 730 yards and 5 touchdowns and as quarterback Josh Freeman gets more comfortable as the starter, Winslow should be used much more in 2011. The Bucs are a young team and with wide receiver Mike Williams becoming a real threat  last year, the Bucs are going to need Winslow to be the second option in the passing game and is definitely a low end TE1. He may not be a soldier, but he’ll help your fantasy team and is worth a pick in the 9^th round of all fantasy drafts in 2011.

Those are my top 12 options heading into 2011 as of right now. The best part of this position heading into this year is how DEEP it is. There are so many decent options that could surprise that I didn’t mention. For example, Tony Gonzalez, Chris Cooley, Todd Heap, Dustin Keller, Greg Olsen, Kevin Boss, Benjamin Watson, Brent Celek, Aaron Hernandez, Anthony Fasano, Jermaine Gresham, Tony Moeaki, John Carlson, Heath Miller, Michael Hoomanawanui and Visanthe Shiancoe. Though not all can be relied on as must start TE1’s there are more than enough options to make sure every team can have two quality options and also have a some options on waivers for when you’re in need.

I expect the tight end position to bounce back big in 2011 and like the quarterback position, every team should be able to get quality fantasy output from the position no matter when they decide to pull the trigger on one.

I will be back next week with some of my favorite sleeper options in standard drafts for 2011.

-BurL

Friday's Fantasy Feast: Early Top 12 QB Ranks!

***These are my own opinions of fantasy football. As I do work for BrunoBoys.net, these ranking are in no way associated with Bruno Boys. What your about to read and any fantasy information I write about here going forward is of my opinion only***

Super Bowl and Fantasy Champ

Another week goes by and we still have no idea whether we will be playing fantasy football in 2011. The players are starting to talk a little too much for my tastes with one comparing the NFL to slavery and another saying that the commissioner is a liar and doesn’t care, but either way, I still love analyzing fantasy football and this week it’s the quarterbacks.

The best thing about the NFL turning into a pass first, run second league is the sheer amount of quality options at the position for 2011. There are more than 12 players I could be comfortable rolling out in my fantasy roster which means that every team in standard 10 and 12 team leagues should be able to have a quality option no matter what round one decides to pull the trigger.

For this reason, I for one, will be in the group that doesn’t take a quarterback in the first round, no matter my position, because I feel passing up on a quality running back could be detrimental to my season with so few options available. If I am drafting on the back end of drafts, unless Aaron Rodgers or Michael Vick are available to me at the start of the second round than I probably won’t own them in any league next year. Also, if I am drafting from the front of drafts, I expect Rodgers and Vick to be gone by my round two selection and I believe I would still rather add another running back or wide receiver to my team before I pull the trigger on any of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Philip Rivers unless I am staring at them to start the third round.

-Check my Top 12 Running Back and Top 12 Wide Receiver rankings to see who not to pass up on-

Again, there are a slew of great options at quarterback in the NFL that can help lead you too fantasy championships so because of that I want to make sure I am deep in the running back and wide receiver categories as the consistent options for these positions thin out as you enter rounds five and beyond. I won’t knock anyone for taking anyone of the six aforementioned quarterbacks mind you, but I like to let people know where my strategy lies for the upcoming 2011 season.

Before I get to my top 12 quarterbacks rankings for next season, it’s imperative to analyze last years preseason top 12 and actual top 12 quarterbacks in standard scoring leagues. (Passing Yards, 25=1 point, Interceptions = -2, Passing touchdowns = 4 points, 10 rush & receiving yards = 1 point, 1 touchdown = 6 points.) I used ESPN preseason projections; I know some may not like their rankings but the 12 guys on this list were pretty much the 12 quarterbacks everyone had anyway; just ordered a bit differently.

Reminder: Making rankings at all are nothing more than educated guesses; no one can ever be 100% positive on where guys will fall by year’s end as there are so many factors, and in March no less they are pretty useless, but fantasy football aficionados everywhere (like me) love to hear where people are valued compared to where you yourself value them.

2010 ESPN Preseason Top 12 Rankings

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

4. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

5. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

6. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

7. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

8. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings

9. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

10. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

11. Eli Manning, New York Giants

12. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles

Actual Top 12 Quarterback Finish in 2010. 

1. Michael Vick – Eagles

3018 Pass Yds, 21 TD’s, 6 Int’s. 676 Rush Yds, 9 TD’s 3 Fum. 300 Fan Pts.

2. Aaron Rodgers –Packers

3922 Pass Yds, 28 TD’s, 11 Ints’s. 356 Rush Yds, 4 TD’s, 1 Fum.292 Fan Pts.

3. Tom Brady – Patriots

3900 Pass Yds, 36 TD’s, 4 Int’s. 30 Rush Yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum. 289 Fan Pts.

4. Peyton Manning – Colts

4700 Pass Yds, 33 TD’s, 17 Int’s. 18 Rush Yds, 1 Fum. 279 Fan Pts.

5. Philip Rivers – Chargers

4710 Pass Yds, 30 TD’s, 13 Int’s. 52 Rush Yds, 4 Fum. 270 Fan Pts.

6. Drew Brees –  Saints 

4620 Pass Yds, 33 TD’s, 22 Int’s. -3 Rush Yds, 2 Fum. 263 Fan Pts.

7. Josh Freeman –  Buccaneers 

3451 Pass Yds, 25 TD’s, 6 Int’s. 364 Rush Yds. 3 Fum. 246 Fan Pts.

8. Matt Ryan – Falcons    

3705 Pass Yds, 28 TD’s, 9 Int’s. 122 Rush Yds, 3 Fum. 238 Fan Pts.

9. Matt Schaub – Texans   

4370 Pass Yds, 24 TD’s, 12 Int’s. 28 Rush Yds, 3 Fum. 237 Fan Pts.

10. Eli Manning –  Giants  

4002 Pass Yds, 31 TD’s, 25 Int’s. 70 Rush Yds, 5 Fum. 221 Fan Pts.

11. Joe Flacco –  Ravens

3622 Pass Yds, 25 TD’s, 10 Int’s. 84 Rush Yds, 1 TD, 4 Fum. 221 Fan Pts.

12. Matt Cassel – Chiefs  

3116 Pass Yds, 27 TD’s, 7 Int’s. 125 Rush Yds, 1 Fum. 217 Fan Pts.

Unlike the top 12 running backs and wide receivers which had half of the projected top 12 actually finish as such, the quarterbacks had 8 of them. They probably would have had nine had Tony Romo not went down with an injury, but what this does show is just how many above average options the quarterback position has, fantasy wise, further backing up my position that one can truly grab a quality quarterback in almost any round of all 2011 standard 10 and 12 team drafts.

I don’t think anyone saw the utter downfall of Brett Favre, even though most expected him to not be as great in 2010 as he was in 2009, but the Vikings were a mess all year. Kevin Kolb may have finished in the top 12 as well had he not gotten concussed forcing the Eagles into playing Michael Vick who played off the charts finishing as the number one fantasy quarterback despite only playing in 11 and a quarter games. Also Josh Freeman and Matt Ryan had terrific seasons in 2010 and both have great running attacks and a solid wide receiver making it hard to think they can’t repeat or exceed their 2010 campaigns in 2011.

So again, the 12 quarterbacks I am about to rank obviously vary in capability and consistency, but all are in such solid positions with solid supporting casts that depending on how certain drafts go I would feel confident rolling out any of them for full length of my 2011 fantasy season. The NFL is passing league now, 4 and 5 wide receiver sets are the norm and that only makes a once hard roster position for everyone to fill become a position that every team in standard 10 and 12 team league should have no problem getting adequate production from.

Here are my top 12 quarterbacks for 2011, in March.

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 6’2” 225 lbs. 27 Yrs Old. 7^th Season.

Since taking over the Packers starting job from Brett Favre in 2008, Aaron Rodgers has been nothing short of spectacular. He finished 2010 with 3922 yards passing, 28 touchdowns and added 356 rushing yards and another 4 touchdowns. He would have his third consecutive 4,000 yard season had he not missed a game with a concussion but still finished with an incredible 101.2 quarterback rating. He led his team to a Super Bowl XLV almost single-handedly as he achieved this great season despite numerous injuries. Next year he’ll get back a dominate tight end in Jermichael Finley, Donald Driver will return and can still be a decent possession guy, he established Jordy Nelson as threat during the playoff run, running back Ryan Grant will return and give him a more stable running game and oh yeah, wide receiver Greg Jennings is still a number one go-to option. Rodger has all the skills anyone would look for in a quarterback, he’s accurate, makes good decisions, is athletic in the pocket and also has the intangibles where he can make things happen even when the pocket protection breaks down. He should be the first quarterback taken in all drafts next year with a middle to late first round selection.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles, 6’0” 215 lbs. 30 Yrs Old. 10^th Season.

He abused my GMen in that 4th quarter, yuck!

Like many people, I for one did not see Michael Vick’s dominating 2010 season coming. I thought he was just about done in football and thought at 30 years old and missing two seasons, Vick would lose his athletic edge and also would prove to be an ineffective pocket passer. Wrong on all accounts. Vick put together the best season of his career in 2010 and seemed to mature as a quarterback. He threw for over 3,000 yard for the first time ever, completed over 62% of his passes for the first time ever and rushed for the most touchdowns in a season with 9 than he ever had previously. Vick is certainly a monster on any fantasy team but he doesn’t come without some risk. For one, injuries will always be an issue with a quarterback who still thinks run every time he takes a snap. But because he thinks run, even on days where he may struggle passing, he can make up his points on the ground. Having LeSean McCoy in the backfield makes it hard for teams to spy him, he has a quality possession receiver in Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson is the perfect complement for Vicks cannon arm with his deep threat ability. I think Vick wshould be drafted with a late first early second round pick in 2011 drafts but make sure you target a Sam Bradford or Matt Cassel type back up in later rounds to hedge the games Vick will almost certainly miss.

***I place Rodgers and Vick in a tier of their own. Unlike the next group of quarterbacks, these two give you the passing stats but also the running stats that make them much more dynamic fantasy options.***

3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts, 6’5” 230 lbs. 34 Yrs Old. 14^th Season.

There is nothing not to love about having Peyton Manning as your fantasy squad’s quarterback in any season and 2011 should be no different. Last year, despite having no running game, a shaky offensive line, injuries to numerous passing options namely tight end Dallas Clark and wide receivers Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez and Pierre Garcon, Peyton Manning has one of his best statistical seasons. He threw for a career high of 4700 passing yards, had 679 completions which was the first time he’s ever had over 600 ever and also broke the 30+ passing touchdown mark for the sixth time in his terrific career. The best part of Peyton Manning is you know exactly what you’re going to get. He is the Indianapolis Colts offense. He has never missed a game in his career and you never have to worry about who he is playing on any given week because you’re never benching him. In 2011 I expect nothing but another incredible season for Peyton as I expect the Colts to bolster their offensive line and also add a running back to help give Peyton better play action help. I also don’t believe the Colts can suffer the injury woes that they did last year and he should get full use out of Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark but if they do, then we know Peyton can make things happen with anyone on the field because he is pin point accurate. Look for Peyton Manning to be drafted in the middle of the second round in all drafts in 2011.

4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints, 6’0” 209 lbs. 32 Yrs Old. 11^th Season.

Like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees is a quarterback that a fantasy player can drool over. After a slow start to his 2010 campaign (blame a Super Bowl hangover), Brees finished with another spectacular statistical season. It was his fifth consecutive season throwing for over 4350 yards, his third consecutive 33+ passing touchdowns and he was as accurate as ever completing over 68% of his passes. His biggest knock in 2010 was that he threw a career high 22 interceptions; something I expect him to get under control in 2011. Part of those interceptions had to do with the Saints lack of a consistent running presence. The Saints should benefit from the return of Pierre Thomas who will hopefully stabilize the ground attack and force defenses to respect the running game something they didn’t need to do much in 2010. The best part about Drew Brees is you know what you’re going to get. The New Orleans Saints are a pass first team, much like the Colts and Packers and Brees is going to be throwing more often than not. Having Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Robert Meachem give him quality options to throw too and the late season surge of tight end Jimmy Graham has allowed the Saints to part ways with Jeremy Shockey and I feel Graham is a much better passing threat and another weapon at Brees disposal. Expect to draft Brees with in the middle of round 2 of all drafts in 2011.

5. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers, 6’5” 228 lbs. 29 Yrs Old. 8^th Season.

What can’t Philip Rivers do at the quarterback position? A year after the San Diego Chargers got rid of their hall of fame running back Ladainian Tomlinson, a stellar receiving threat, lost number one wide receiving threat Vincent Jackson, dealt with injuries to the best tight end in football Antonio Gates and also receiver Malcolm Floyd, Philip Rivers had the best statistical season of his career. Of course he did! Philip Rivers may come off as arrogant and obnoxious at times, but he is a phenomenal quarterback in the NFL. Last year he led all quarterbacks throwing for 4710 yards, ten more yards than Peyton Manning on almost 100 fewer completions, had 30 touchdowns and finished with a remarkable 101.8 quarterback rating (down from his previous 2 seasons of 105.5 and 104.4 but not too shabby). I expect Philip Rivers to have another incredible year in 2011 as he should be getting Antonio Gates at full strength and he’ll have Vincent Jackson for one full season of play. Vincent Jackson can only make his job easier and if running back Ryan Mathews can establish himself as even a decent running threat, Rivers and the Chargers will be looking to return to the playoffs in 2011. Expect to find Rivers in drafts in the middle to late second round in 2011.

6. Tom Brady, New England Patriots, 6’4” 225 lbs. 33 Yrs Old. 12^th Season.

If you would have told me before last year that Tom Brady would throw for 3900 yards and 36 touchdowns in 2010, I would have said “of course!” But if you told me he would do all that without the help of wide receiver Randy Moss, a down year for Wes Welker, two rookie tight ends, and something called Danny Woodhead, I would have called you crazy. That’s just what Tom Brady did in 2010. What’s was even more amazing was the fact that this was only the second time in Brady’s career that he eclipsed 30+ touchdown passes and under double digit interceptions (he threw only 4, yes 4). Sure Tom has his haters, people shun his good looks, his model girlfriends and love when he does things like the video posted here, but what we can never call him is an over rated quarterback. Despite the incredible season last year, the New England Patriots as a whole under Belechick are one of the hardest teams to decipher. Next year Belechick may decide to be a run first team, or they run more goal line runs than passes and being that is was only the second 30+ touchdown pass season, odds are Brady will return to a sub 30 touchdown campaign next year, but he’s still a money quarterback. He’s accurate, makes great decisions and keeps turnovers to a minimum which is why he should be drafted toward the end of round two in 2011 fantasy drafts.

***The four quarterbacks above are very similar and are really more of a preference on who you like better. The best part about all four is that you don’t really need to bother drafting a back up being that you’ll be wasting a roster space as you’ll only start them once. I would just make a one week pick up with a Ryan Fitzpatrick, Alex Smith or Jason Campbell type quarterback who I’ll immediately dump after I use them. By drafting one of these guys you’ll be able to add more depth at whatever position your lacking in which could make for great trade bait or help should injuries occur.***

7. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys, 6’2” 223lbs. 30 Yrs Old. 9^th Season.

Before the New York Giants (what what) ended Tony Romo’s 2010 season in week 6, Romo was off to another great season statistically. He had already thrown for 1600 yards and 11 touchdowns and probably would have finished with one of his best seasons thus far. I believe he will do just that in 2011. Tony Romo has a career 95.5 passer rating and has done this under the tutelage of two defensive minded coaches in Bill Parcels and Wade Phillips, a head case wide receiver Terrell Owens and constant media bombardment of his numerous love interests. In 2011, Tony will finally have a head coach who is offensive minded in Jason Garrett (a former quarterback himself) but will also have a bevy of fantastic receiving options. Miles Austin has established himself as a threat, Jason Witten led all tight ends last year with 90 receptions and most importantly, second year wide out Dez Bryant, under Romo, should establish himself as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL. I expect Garrett to get better production from Felix Jones, who also has decent hands, and Tony Romo is all set to have one of the best seasons of his career. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished as a top 5 fantasy quarterback in 2011, I just don’t know which of my top six before him would fall. What makes Romo a great fantasy option is his value, I expect you to be able to draft him from the middle of the third round until late in the fourth round but get equal production to the four guys I rank ahead of him. If you’re not one to bite on a quarterback early, waiting for Romo later on could help you tremendously in 2011.

8. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers,  6’5” 241 lbs. 29 Yrs Old. 8^th Season.

He'll be great one year removed from his off field issues.

After being forced to sit for the first 4 games of 2010 for off the field issues, Ben Roethlisberger stepped right back in to the Steelers offense had a remarkable year despite. Leading the Steelers to their third Super Bowl appearance under his tenure and after the issues he faced was a testament to just how good he truly is. Now he’s never been the greatest fantasy option seeing as he plays for a run first, defensive orientated team, he is more than serviceable because as he’s aged, Big Ben has gotten better in his decision making. In 12 games last year he threw for 3200 yards (267 per game), 17 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. What makes Big Ben so great as well is his intangible factor; the ability to turn a broken play into a home run. Being that Rashard Mendenhall has become a threat, Big Ben uses Speedster Mike Wallace perfectly in play action is the two of them are good for a deep connection in almost every game. Hines Ward will return and despite his age, can still be a quality passion man and receiver Emanuele Sanders started to come on late last season and should help Ben in 2011. Roethlisberger may not get you many huge fantasy outputs but he’s stable and will give you consistent production all year long. I expect Roethlisberger to available between rounds seven and nine in 2011 drafts and has sleeper written all over him as a few of the quarterbacks I rank after him will probably go before him.  

9. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans, 6’5” 240 lbs. 29 Yrs Old. 8^th Season.

Despite finishing the season with great numbers, most would say Houston’s Matt Schaub had a pretty down year. This was due to the fact that in five of his first eight games last year he recorded single digit fantasy points and probably ended seasons for most fantasy owners who expected more. This was largely due to the establishment of running back Arian Foster who head coach Gary Kubiak relied on maybe too much during stretches of games and I expect in 2011 for the Texans to try and balance their play calling more. Schaub has weapons still as obviously Andre Johnson is a one man fantasy terminator but he will also return tight end Owen Daniels who finally  was able to get on the field late in 2010 and show that he can still be as good as he had been in previous years. The Texans have nothing but youth and upside but have yet to realize it, but for fantasy purposes, Schaub is a quality quarterback option who should eclipse over 4,000 yards for a third consecutive season and knock on the door of 30 touchdowns in 2011. I expect him to be drafted between rounds five and eight in all drafts in August.  

10. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6’6” 248 lbs. 23 Yrs Old. 3^rd Season.

Look for an even better third year for the big QB.

Josh Freeman had an incredible sophomore season and his play was instrumental in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers resurgence in 2010. Freeman threw for 3451 yards, 25 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions but also showed tremendous athleticism for a man his size as he ran for the second most yards by a quarterback with 364. The Buccaneers as whole are a team on the rise, Freeman established a solid wide receiving threat with rookie Mike Williams, has a decent tight end I expect them to use more in 2011 in Kellen Winslow and another rookie Arrelious Benn showed promise before going down with injury. 2011 should only make for a better year as these players get more experience together. While Freeman won’t get you huge earth shattering performances (had only 1 game of 20 fantasy points or more in 2010 with 31), he won’t leave you high and dry with no production (only 1 game last season with less than 11 fantasy points, 6). He’s showed that he’s consistent, will take what defenses give him but as he gets more comfortable surely coach Raheem Morris will start to open up the game plan for him to grow. I like Freeman as a low end quarterback 1 and you could be able to draft him between rounds 7 and 9 in all fantasy drafts in 2011. I would target a decent back up as well.

11. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, 6’4” 220 lbs. 25 Yrs Old. 4^th Season.

Matt Ryan has all the potential to be one of the best quarterback options in football. He took a franchise that seemed lost after Michael Vick went to prison and took them to an NFC best 13-3 record in 2010. With one of the game’s best wide receivers in Roddy White and sure firs hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez it’s no surprise Ryan put together his best season last year with 3705 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. The biggest knock on him is that he isn’t as great on the road as he is at home but then again really? Last year he averaged 13.5 fantasy points on the road versus 16 at home. But is that discrepancy really that big, 2.5 points? Part of the reason he didn’t throw for more is that the Falcons still want to run first having Michael Turner in the back field but also, he has to rely so much on Roddy White as they have been unable to find a receiver to establish themselves as a second guy. I expect the Falcons to address this situation in 2011 and I think Matt Ryan can exceed his 2010 numbers making him a great quarterback 1 option. I would still draft a quality back up for him just in case but look for him to be available to you between rounds 7 and 9 in 2011 drafts.

12. Eli Manning, New York Giants, 6’4” 225 lbs. 30 Yrs Old. 8^th Season.

Of course Eli Manning is not his brother Peyton in any way shape or form, but for fantasy purposes, like the 11 ranked above him is another solid fantasy option at his position. Despite playing for a Giants team that will always look to run first, Eli has gotten progressively better statistically in each year he’s played. Last season he threw for his second consecutive 4,000 yard campaign and went over 30+ touchdowns for the first time and did so without his best possession receiver Steve Smith, who went down early with an ACL injury. He established Hakeem Nicks as a top receiving option in the NFL and Mario Manningham proved to be a great option as well; both should open the door for another very productive season as long as he can get his interceptions under control. To his credit though, almost a third of his career high 25 interceptions last year were due to receivers dropping easy catches and them landing in defenses hands (A Giants homer stat I know but still). Had he gotten those under control he would have had an even better season but will still be able to help your fantasy franchise in 2011. Look for him to be drafted between rounds 8 and 10 in fantasy drafts next year but targeting a back up should be a high priority.

So there you have it, those are my top 12 quarterback options for fantasy in 2011. The best part about all these players are they all have ability to put up tremendous quarterback 1 type numbers. That means that basically every team in standard 10 and 12 team leagues should have a stable option under center which is why I wouldn’t pull the trigger too early on a quarterback and miss out on quality running backs and wide receivers in 2011.

Also, their can be cases to be made for Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford, Matt Cassel, and Carson Palmer or Kevin Kolb (if they are on another team). So again, so many options to choose from in 2011. Thanks the NFL for making it hard to cover receivers year in and year out. 

Next week I will break down the tight ends for next year as we all know last year they ended up being more of a head ache for everyone than anything with all the injuries that occurred.

I hope you all are enjoying March Madness, but I will always have football on the brain.

-BurL

Friday's Fantasy Feast: Early Top 12 RB Ranks!

***These are my own opinions of fantasy football. As I do work for BrunoBoys.net, these ranking are in no way associated with Bruno Boys. What your about to read and any fantasy information I write about here going forward is of my opinion only***


Ever since fantasy football started, as long as I could remember, running backs are the meat and potatoes of your fantasy team. Achieving the ultimate success, winning your fantasy championship, usually always comes down to who you had anchoring your team on the ground and at least for one more year, this will be the case almost certainly.

As of right now the NFL and the NFLPA are negotiating a myriad of items but one that I think the owners will win on is the advent of an 18 game schedule for 2011, which will certainly change the dynamic of football and fantasy football no doubt. Two more games a year will just mean more injury risk to the already high impact position of running back and being that we’ve seen more and more teams already make the switch to running back by committee (RBBC), then we will no doubt see even more, if not all, teams make the switch to better preserve their backs as the grueling season progresses.

(Lets' dedicate this post to the best running back ever)

Basically, the days of your fantasy team having two running backs that dominate the carries for their franchise are coming to an end and we are more than likely witnessing the last of a dying breed right now. So in 2011, making sure you anchor your franchise with at least one of these premier running backs as it will be crucial to your success through the long haul. It seems that in the years to come drafting running backs will mean just taking the guy you expect to get 51% of his teams carries and not the 90% or better that running backs of the past have enjoyed.

Before I get to my top twelve running back rankings for next season, it’s imperative to analyze last years preseason top 12 and actual top 12 running backs in standard scoring leagues. (10 rush & receiving yards = 1 point, 1 touchdown = 6 points.) I used ESPN preseason projections, I know some may not like their rankings but the 12 guys on this list were pretty much the 12 running backs everyone had, just ordered a bit differently.

Reminder: Making rankings at all are nothing more than educated guesses; no one can ever be 100% positive on where guys will fall by year’s end as there are so many factors, and in March no less they are pretty useless, but fantasy football aficionados everywhere (like me) love to hear where people are valued compared to where you yourself value them.

Last Season Preseason ESPN RB Ranking.

1. Chris Johnson

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Ray Rice

5. Steven Jackson

6. Frank Gore

7. Michael Turner

8. DeAngelo Williams

9. Ryan Grant

10. Cedric Benson

11. Rashard Mendenhall

12. Shonn Greene

Last Season Actual Top 12 RB’s in Standard Scoring

1. Arian Foster, Houston RB,

326 Rush, 1614 Yards, 16 TD’s. 66 Rec, 604 Yards, 2 TD’s. 2 Fum. 313 Fan Pts.

2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota RB, 

283 Rush, 1298 Yards, 12 TD’s. 36 Rec, 341 Yards, 1 TD. 1 Fum. 232 Fan Pts.

3. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City RB, 

230 Rush, 1467 Yards, 5 TD’s. 45 Rec, 468 Yards, 3 TD’s. 2 Fum. 223 Fan Pts.

4. Peyton Hillis, Cleveland RB, 

270 Rush, 1177 Yards, 11 TD’s. 61 Rec, 477 Yards, 2 TD’s. 5 Fum. 218 Fan Pts.

5. Chris Johnson, Tennessee RB, 

316 Rush, 1364 Yards, 11 TD’s. 44 Rec, 245 Yards, 1 TD. 2 Fum. 216 Fan Pts.

6. Darren McFadden, Oakland RB, 

223 Rush, 1157 Yards, 7 TD’s. 47 Rec, 507 Yards, 3 TD’s. 3 Fum. 208 Fan Pts.

7. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia RB, 

207 Rush, 1080 Yards, 7 TD’s. 78 Rec, 592 Yards, 2 TD’s. 1 Fum. 206 Fan Pts.

8. Michael Turner, Atlanta RB, 

334 Rush, 1371 Yards, 12 TD’s. 12 Rec, 85 Yards, 0 TD. 2 Fum. 205 Fan Pts.

9. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh RB, 

324 Rush, 1273 Yards, 13 TD’s. 23 Rec, 167 Yards, 0 TD. 2 Fum. 203 Fan Pts.

10. Ray Rice, Baltimore RB, 

308 Rush, 1223 Yards, 5 TD’s. 63 Rec, 556 Yards, 1 TD. 0 Fum. 200 Fan Pts.

11. Matt Forte, Chicago RB, 

237 Rush, 1069 Yards, 6 TD’s. 51 Rec, 547 Yards, 3 TD’s. 1 2P. 2 Fum. 199 Fan Pts.

12. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville RB, 

299 Rush, 1324 Yards, 5 TD’s. 34 Rec, 317 Yards, 2 TD’s. 2 Fum. 186 Fan Pts.

So wow, right off the bat, there is one glaring observation. Only half of the preseason projected top 12 running backs actually finished years end as a top 12. So basically everyone in their drafts this season will have a 50% chance of drafting a homerun or a whiff and that’s just how fantasy football goes. Injuries and the like are going to happen no matter what. 

As I stated before, this year may be more imperative than ever to make sure you get a running back that commands the ball as so few of them exist anymore. Seeing as in a standard 10 or 12 teams draft there are at least 12 quarterbacks that are more than fantasy starter worthy, I wouldn’t want to be the guy who drafts Aaron Rodgers or Michael Vick in round 1 when more than likely by round 2, none of these 12 running backs will be available and I would be pulling my hair out playing guessing games with the second tier running backs or hunting the waiver wire praying for an injury. If you are the type of fantasy player that needs to have a stud quarterback (it is nice to have no doubt) you’d be more inclined to get one of these backs in the first round as you’ll more than likely have the ability to grab Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers or Tony Romo between the second and fourth rounds anyway and they aren't too shabby at all.

So my philosophy for 2011 is the old adage. RB – RB. If your get one of these top 12’s early and another one is still available by round 2? Even better. As Charlie Sheen would say, your “Bi-Winning” with your fantasy team in 2011.

Okay, so here are Burl’s top 12 running backs for next season as of today.

1. Adrian Peterson. Minnesota Vikings RB. 25 Years Old, 5^th Season.  

What’s not to like about “All Day” Adrian Peterson? Last season everyone had Chris Johnson pegged to be the #1 running back in fantasy but had him as consensus #2 and he finished as just that, two years in a row to boot. That’s consistency. Despite having down numbers for what we’d expect Adrian Peterson to have, I would argue this year was his most impressive of all. He “only” rushed for 1298 yards which was the worst of his career, but look at the mess that was the Minnesota Vikings in 2010. Dealing with Brett Favre issues, a coaching change, and injuries to both top wide receivers meant only that every defense had the ability to lock onto to Adrian more than ever, yet he still dominated them. Better yet, in his first 3 season’s Peterson fumbled 4, 6 and 9 time yet last year he only fumbled once. That’s makes me believe the best is still yet to come with “All Day.” As of writing this, Minnesota released Tavaris Jackson which leads me to believe the Vikings will be actively pursuing a quarterback either through the draft, or free agency. Being that this team was one interception away from the Super Bowl two years ago, if they get a quarterback that can settle the offense and take pressure off of Peterson, there is no reason to think he won’t finish near the top again next year. Taking Adrian Peterson is about the most risk free pick one could make in 2011.

2. Arian Foster, Houston Texans RB. 24 Years Old. 3^rd Season.

Where did this guy come from in 2010? An undrafted running back in 2009 out of Tennessee, where he had an up and down career mired with some off field issues, turned into the best running back in the NFL last year; and by a mile. He finished with 313 fantasy points which was 81 higher than the second best running back Adrian Peterson. A lot went into to that though. He opened the season with a 33 carry, 231 yard and 3 touchdown performance which got everyone’s attention but did you know that he only got 30+ carries three times all year? In fact, he rushed for 22 or less carries in 12 games and less than 20 in 9 of those. Houston is not all of a sudden going to forget that they have Andre Johnson working the outside and lean on Foster as an every down back which makes me want to temper expectations a bit (putting him at 2 vs. 1). I am totally impressed with him definitely and at 6’1” 230lbs. he is a bruiser who should be able to repeat that performance but despite how good he was and the weapons Houston has, they still finished marginally at 6-10. I expect Foster to finish in the top 5 no doubt but I don’t think he comes near what he accomplished last year. I also expect back up running back Ben Tate (remember him?) to spell him a bit in the coming year. You can’t go wrong with Foster with a Top 3 pick in 2011.

3. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers RB. 23 years Old. 4^th Season.

This may be the highest you’ll see Mendenhall ranked by anyone in Fantasy Football and I couldn’t blame you for saying it’s too high, but I have my reasons. Of the top 12 backs in my rankings, this guy has the best defense and quarterback and that will only help Rashard in his 4^th season. Having Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace keeping defenses honest and a defense that will keep them with great field position, I believe Mendenhall can improve on his 2010, 13 touchdown total and approach the 18 touchdown mark in 2011. Granted he only rushed for over 100 yards in three games last year but expect that to change next season. The Steelers are going to improve their offensive line around center Maurice Pouncey and continue to be a run first team. Mendenhall may not catch the ball like some of the other running backs but he has consistency where it matters with a great head coach and a great organization which makes him one of the least risky picks at the position next to Adrian Peterson.

4. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs RB. 24 Years Old. 4^th Season.

Jamaal Charles, to me, is the fantasy equivalent of Neo from the Matrix trilogies. He is anomaly that in the last two seasons no defense has been able to figure out. He boasts a career 6 yards per carry average and seems to do more with less than any running back maybe ever in history the NFL. His biggest knock is that when the Chiefs enter the goal line he isn’t on the field but despite that, he finished as the third best running back in fantasy last year. The reason I place him one slot higher than Chris Johnson is the fact that he has consistency within his organization. Sure offensive coordinator Charlie Wies moved on, but he still has the same head coach, quarterback and receiving threats as last season and plays in one of the weakest divisions defensively in the NFL. Also, Thomas Jones may have been the starter but he had one of his worst seasons last year and his age is starting to show. After two seasons with the Jets and having a 4.5 and 42 YPC average, last year he only average 3.7. I think this year Charles will get a couple more carries in each game and catch a few more balls and we all can see just how lethal he can be. I think Charles only gets better in his second season full season as major piece of the Chiefs offense and expect big things in 2011.

5. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans RB. 25 Years Old. 4^th Season.

Look, I love Chris Johnson; he is a hell of a running back with all the talent in the world, even though I rank him “low” compared to other it’s mostly because of the inconsistency he’s facing within the Titans organization. Jeff Fisher is now out as head coach, they have no quarterback to speak of yet and will be implementing an entire new system for next year to boot. Also, if the new CBA isn’t reached early enough, the team as a whole is going to have limited time to learn the new system, and this definitely works against CJ2K.  he still has a career 5.0 yards per carry average but in 2010 only had a 4.3. That’s a significant decline for the guy we all hastily pegged as the best fantasy back. As of right now, I think Chris Johnson carries a lot of risk and that’s what all fantasy owners want to avoid with their first draft choice. Sure his talent alone will allow him to post some big stat lines but like last year, where he had 6 games of 6 points or less, I expect more of those until they learn their new offense. He’s medium risk/high reward in 2011.

6. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens RB. 24 Years Old. 4^th Season.

Get ready ladies and gentleman. I think this is finally the year the Ravens realize Willis McGahee doesn’t deserve to steal this great running backs precious touchdowns. News right now is that McGahee is owed $6 million next season and unless he takes a pay cut will not asked to return and I hope he more the greedy type. Last year Rice started off sluggish while the Ravens played with their new receiving toys Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmanzadeh and if you remove his first four outings in which he didn’t score a touchdown, he finished the last 12 games with 1472 yards from scrimmage and 6 touchdowns. I expect him to be fully involved in the offense next year and will also start receiving his share of the goal line carries. The Ravens are going to need him to be great if they expect to contend again and my money is they contend. I expect a bounce back year for Ray Rice and would be happy to build my team around him in 2011.

7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars RB. 25 Years Old. 6^th Season.

This is a running back who I myself feel I may still be overvaluing but his numbers warrant his ranking. In five seasons as the Jaguars premier back he has averaged 275 touches a game. That’s a lot of tread on this young man’s tires and eventually it may have to give. MJD is a great back, no doubt but I have absolutely no faith in the pieces around him. In fact I am shocked every year that they win as many games as they do. He basically is the entire offense and teams know this yet he’s been unstoppable but that said, he is a running back I always tend to avoid. This offense needs a lot of help and strictly cannot rely on MJD alone and if they do then I don’t know he lasts another five seasons. I like him as the seventh best running back because I respect the numbers he put up, but last year he fell from 15 to 5 touchdowns the year prior and I think that’s about all you should expect again in 2011.

8. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons RB. 29 Years Old. 8^th Season.

I was surprised to see that Turner is turned 29 this February. That’s a tough number to hear from your stud running back and a guy, who like Jones-Drew, has gotten a lot of wear on his treads. What makes him appealing though is the fact that his team is very good. The Falcons have all the pieces one could want in a football team with a competent quarterback, good head coach and great wide receiver that takes pressure off the Burner. Last year he rebounded from a poor injury plagued 2009, but the Falcons gave him 334 handoffs and he had his lowest yards per carry average ever at 4.1. Still a decent average, but I wonder how he’ll respond the following year. In 2008 they gave him 376 carries and that alone probably cost him the 2009 178 carry in 11 games debacle. I think given his age, usage in 2010 and Jason Snelling proving to be valuable make him the riskiest running back in my top 12. The number are there to warrant him being a top back still but he his high risk/high reward approaching 30 years old.

9. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles RB. 22 Years Old. 3^rd Season.

McCoy had a tremendous sophomore season for the Eagles in 2010. He achieved his first 1,000 yard season on only 207 carries having a 5.2 yards per average. On top of that, he was the perfect safety valve for Michael Vick to dump the ball too adding 78 receptions for 592 yards. Entering his third year, Michael Vick will be back and being that he is a threat with his feet makes it hard for defenses to key on McCoy leading me to believe he only improves in 2011. He’s a dynamic back that can make things happen like Jamaal Charles but like Charles, isn’t used much around the goal line. Other than that though, he’s still a lock for 20 touches a game and you couldn’t ask for more from a RB1 in fantasy.

10. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders RB. 23 Years Old. 4^th Season.

Run DMC finally had the year people expected of him when the Raiders drafted him with their 4^th pick in 2008 out of Arkansas. After 2 seasons of less than 500 yards on the ground, McFadden lit it up last year with 1157 rushing yards, 507 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns in 13 games. That’s the only problem with McFadden is that he is brittle. He has yet to play a full season but the fact he finally proved his value makes him a quality RB1 for your fantasy team in 2011 with either a late first round or early second round selection. The Raiders finally got themselves back to .500 in 2010 after an 8 year drought and seem to be a team on the uptick. It also helps that they play in the AFC West where defense seems to go to die. I love his explosiveness and versatility at the position and but if you’re going to draft him in 2011, definitely follow him with another running back just in case. You can’t rely on him as a solo show just yet. 

11. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams RB. 27 Years Old. 7^th Season.

The lost man. Steven Jackson may just be the most talented running back in all of football. He’s 6’2”, 235lbs, can run over you, around you and has great hands. His only problem was the Rams have been a horror show for most of his career. That all changed last season with the addition of a competent quarterback named Sam Bradford. Finally, Jackson has someone that defenses need to respect and will no longer stack 8-in-the-box against him and at 27 years old, I still think SJax has a few good years left in his tank. Last year he had his worst yards per average, but to his credit, the receiving core was injured all year long. Bradford never had a chance to grow with a wide out and I think they address that in the off season. I see no reason why the Rams can’t win their division in 2011 and I think Steven Jackson will finally have over 10 TD’s which he’s done only once in 2006. I still like him as a solid RB1 and finally has some upside to boot.

12. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers RB. 27 Years Old. 7^th Season.

Last but not least I am taking Frank Gore was the final running back in my rankings. Look, I can’t tell you a fractured hip doesn’t scare me, but all reports out of San Francisco have said that he’ll be more than ready to go. Thankfully it happened early enough in the season that he got more time than just an offseason to heal up. Will it ever be full strength? Maybe not, but the 49ers finally got themselves an offensive minded head coach with Jim Harbaugh who should be able to use Gore better than Singletary could. The 49ers are a team with tons of talent but no direction and Harbaugh should bring that to them. I also think Alex Smith will be replaced as well, but if not, Harbaugh should be able to get more out him than anyone ever has. I think Gore has his risks definitely, but he’s still young enough to do some damage and plays in a division that he could dominate with the right system. He still finished as the 20th best running back in fantasy last year misses the last quarter of the season. I would draft him early 2^nd round and pair him with another one of these 12 studs if possible in 2011.

Again, ranking in March are probably worthless, and I certainly will change my opinions based on whatever new information comes about. But right now, this is how I would rank these 12 fantastic running backs. There are some decent options I left out of these but it’s only because there is more risk involved than any of these guys. Cases could be made for LeGarrette Blount, Knowhson Moreno, Peyton Hillis, Matt Forte and Shonn Greene but for right now, these 12 are the least risky in my book and I will need one of them on my 2011 fantasy team.

I hope you enjoyed my Friday Fantasy Feast, and all year long I plan on giving you rankings, player profiles, draft strategy and game day strategies every Friday here on Burl’s Sports Beat.

Please, let me know your thoughts and who you’re high on in 2011.

Keep it classy San Diego,

-BurL