***These are my own opinions of fantasy football. As I do work for BrunoBoys.net, these ranking are in no way associated with Bruno Boys. What your about to read and any fantasy information I write about here going forward is of my opinion only***
Ever since fantasy football started, as long as I could remember, running backs are the meat and potatoes of your fantasy team. Achieving the ultimate success, winning your fantasy championship, usually always comes down to who you had anchoring your team on the ground and at least for one more year, this will be the case almost certainly.
Ever since fantasy football started, as long as I could remember, running backs are the meat and potatoes of your fantasy team. Achieving the ultimate success, winning your fantasy championship, usually always comes down to who you had anchoring your team on the ground and at least for one more year, this will be the case almost certainly.
As of right now the NFL and the NFLPA are negotiating a myriad of items but one that I think the owners will win on is the advent of an 18 game schedule for 2011, which will certainly change the dynamic of football and fantasy football no doubt. Two more games a year will just mean more injury risk to the already high impact position of running back and being that we’ve seen more and more teams already make the switch to running back by committee (RBBC), then we will no doubt see even more, if not all, teams make the switch to better preserve their backs as the grueling season progresses.
(Lets' dedicate this post to the best running back ever)
Basically, the days of your fantasy team having two running backs that dominate the carries for their franchise are coming to an end and we are more than likely witnessing the last of a dying breed right now. So in 2011, making sure you anchor your franchise with at least one of these premier running backs as it will be crucial to your success through the long haul. It seems that in the years to come drafting running backs will mean just taking the guy you expect to get 51% of his teams carries and not the 90% or better that running backs of the past have enjoyed.
Before I get to my top twelve running back rankings for next season, it’s imperative to analyze last years preseason top 12 and actual top 12 running backs in standard scoring leagues. (10 rush & receiving yards = 1 point, 1 touchdown = 6 points.) I used ESPN preseason projections, I know some may not like their rankings but the 12 guys on this list were pretty much the 12 running backs everyone had, just ordered a bit differently.
Reminder: Making rankings at all are nothing more than educated guesses; no one can ever be 100% positive on where guys will fall by year’s end as there are so many factors, and in March no less they are pretty useless, but fantasy football aficionados everywhere (like me) love to hear where people are valued compared to where you yourself value them.
Last Season Preseason ESPN RB Ranking.
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Steven Jackson
6. Frank Gore
7. Michael Turner
8. DeAngelo Williams
9. Ryan Grant
10. Cedric Benson
11. Rashard Mendenhall
12. Shonn Greene
Last Season Actual Top 12 RB’s in Standard Scoring
1. Arian Foster, Houston RB,
326 Rush, 1614 Yards, 16 TD’s. 66 Rec, 604 Yards, 2 TD’s. 2 Fum. 313 Fan Pts.
2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota RB,
283 Rush, 1298 Yards, 12 TD’s. 36 Rec, 341 Yards, 1 TD. 1 Fum. 232 Fan Pts.
3. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City RB,
230 Rush, 1467 Yards, 5 TD’s. 45 Rec, 468 Yards, 3 TD’s. 2 Fum. 223 Fan Pts.
4. Peyton Hillis, Cleveland RB,
270 Rush, 1177 Yards, 11 TD’s. 61 Rec, 477 Yards, 2 TD’s. 5 Fum. 218 Fan Pts.
5. Chris Johnson, Tennessee RB,
316 Rush, 1364 Yards, 11 TD’s. 44 Rec, 245 Yards, 1 TD. 2 Fum. 216 Fan Pts.
6. Darren McFadden, Oakland RB,
223 Rush, 1157 Yards, 7 TD’s. 47 Rec, 507 Yards, 3 TD’s. 3 Fum. 208 Fan Pts.
7. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia RB,
207 Rush, 1080 Yards, 7 TD’s. 78 Rec, 592 Yards, 2 TD’s. 1 Fum. 206 Fan Pts.
8. Michael Turner, Atlanta RB,
334 Rush, 1371 Yards, 12 TD’s. 12 Rec, 85 Yards, 0 TD. 2 Fum. 205 Fan Pts.
9. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh RB,
324 Rush, 1273 Yards, 13 TD’s. 23 Rec, 167 Yards, 0 TD. 2 Fum. 203 Fan Pts.
10. Ray Rice, Baltimore RB,
308 Rush, 1223 Yards, 5 TD’s. 63 Rec, 556 Yards, 1 TD. 0 Fum. 200 Fan Pts.
11. Matt Forte, Chicago RB,
237 Rush, 1069 Yards, 6 TD’s. 51 Rec, 547 Yards, 3 TD’s. 1 2P. 2 Fum. 199 Fan Pts.
12. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville RB,
299 Rush, 1324 Yards, 5 TD’s. 34 Rec, 317 Yards, 2 TD’s. 2 Fum. 186 Fan Pts.
So wow, right off the bat, there is one glaring observation. Only half of the preseason projected top 12 running backs actually finished years end as a top 12. So basically everyone in their drafts this season will have a 50% chance of drafting a homerun or a whiff and that’s just how fantasy football goes. Injuries and the like are going to happen no matter what.
As I stated before, this year may be more imperative than ever to make sure you get a running back that commands the ball as so few of them exist anymore. Seeing as in a standard 10 or 12 teams draft there are at least 12 quarterbacks that are more than fantasy starter worthy, I wouldn’t want to be the guy who drafts Aaron Rodgers or Michael Vick in round 1 when more than likely by round 2, none of these 12 running backs will be available and I would be pulling my hair out playing guessing games with the second tier running backs or hunting the waiver wire praying for an injury. If you are the type of fantasy player that needs to have a stud quarterback (it is nice to have no doubt) you’d be more inclined to get one of these backs in the first round as you’ll more than likely have the ability to grab Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers or Tony Romo between the second and fourth rounds anyway and they aren't too shabby at all.
So my philosophy for 2011 is the old adage. RB – RB. If your get one of these top 12’s early and another one is still available by round 2? Even better. As Charlie Sheen would say, your “Bi-Winning” with your fantasy team in 2011.
Okay, so here are Burl’s top 12 running backs for next season as of today.
1. Adrian Peterson. Minnesota Vikings RB. 25 Years Old, 5th Season.
What’s not to like about “All Day” Adrian Peterson? Last season everyone had Chris Johnson pegged to be the #1 running back in fantasy but had him as consensus #2 and he finished as just that, two years in a row to boot. That’s consistency. Despite having down numbers for what we’d expect Adrian Peterson to have, I would argue this year was his most impressive of all. He “only” rushed for 1298 yards which was the worst of his career, but look at the mess that was the Minnesota Vikings in 2010. Dealing with Brett Favre issues, a coaching change, and injuries to both top wide receivers meant only that every defense had the ability to lock onto to Adrian more than ever, yet he still dominated them. Better yet, in his first 3 season’s Peterson fumbled 4, 6 and 9 time yet last year he only fumbled once. That’s makes me believe the best is still yet to come with “All Day.” As of writing this, Minnesota released Tavaris Jackson which leads me to believe the Vikings will be actively pursuing a quarterback either through the draft, or free agency. Being that this team was one interception away from the Super Bowl two years ago, if they get a quarterback that can settle the offense and take pressure off of Peterson, there is no reason to think he won’t finish near the top again next year. Taking Adrian Peterson is about the most risk free pick one could make in 2011.
2. Arian Foster, Houston Texans RB. 24 Years Old. 3rd Season.
Where did this guy come from in 2010? An undrafted running back in 2009 out of Tennessee, where he had an up and down career mired with some off field issues, turned into the best running back in the NFL last year; and by a mile. He finished with 313 fantasy points which was 81 higher than the second best running back Adrian Peterson. A lot went into to that though. He opened the season with a 33 carry, 231 yard and 3 touchdown performance which got everyone’s attention but did you know that he only got 30+ carries three times all year? In fact, he rushed for 22 or less carries in 12 games and less than 20 in 9 of those. Houston is not all of a sudden going to forget that they have Andre Johnson working the outside and lean on Foster as an every down back which makes me want to temper expectations a bit (putting him at 2 vs. 1). I am totally impressed with him definitely and at 6’1” 230lbs. he is a bruiser who should be able to repeat that performance but despite how good he was and the weapons Houston has, they still finished marginally at 6-10. I expect Foster to finish in the top 5 no doubt but I don’t think he comes near what he accomplished last year. I also expect back up running back Ben Tate (remember him?) to spell him a bit in the coming year. You can’t go wrong with Foster with a Top 3 pick in 2011.
3. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers RB. 23 years Old. 4th Season.
This may be the highest you’ll see Mendenhall ranked by anyone in Fantasy Football and I couldn’t blame you for saying it’s too high, but I have my reasons. Of the top 12 backs in my rankings, this guy has the best defense and quarterback and that will only help Rashard in his 4th season. Having Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace keeping defenses honest and a defense that will keep them with great field position, I believe Mendenhall can improve on his 2010, 13 touchdown total and approach the 18 touchdown mark in 2011. Granted he only rushed for over 100 yards in three games last year but expect that to change next season. The Steelers are going to improve their offensive line around center Maurice Pouncey and continue to be a run first team. Mendenhall may not catch the ball like some of the other running backs but he has consistency where it matters with a great head coach and a great organization which makes him one of the least risky picks at the position next to Adrian Peterson.
4. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs RB. 24 Years Old. 4th Season.
Jamaal Charles, to me, is the fantasy equivalent of Neo from the Matrix trilogies. He is anomaly that in the last two seasons no defense has been able to figure out. He boasts a career 6 yards per carry average and seems to do more with less than any running back maybe ever in history the NFL. His biggest knock is that when the Chiefs enter the goal line he isn’t on the field but despite that, he finished as the third best running back in fantasy last year. The reason I place him one slot higher than Chris Johnson is the fact that he has consistency within his organization. Sure offensive coordinator Charlie Wies moved on, but he still has the same head coach, quarterback and receiving threats as last season and plays in one of the weakest divisions defensively in the NFL. Also, Thomas Jones may have been the starter but he had one of his worst seasons last year and his age is starting to show. After two seasons with the Jets and having a 4.5 and 42 YPC average, last year he only average 3.7. I think this year Charles will get a couple more carries in each game and catch a few more balls and we all can see just how lethal he can be. I think Charles only gets better in his second season full season as major piece of the Chiefs offense and expect big things in 2011.
5. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans RB. 25 Years Old. 4th Season.
Look, I love Chris Johnson; he is a hell of a running back with all the talent in the world, even though I rank him “low” compared to other it’s mostly because of the inconsistency he’s facing within the Titans organization. Jeff Fisher is now out as head coach, they have no quarterback to speak of yet and will be implementing an entire new system for next year to boot. Also, if the new CBA isn’t reached early enough, the team as a whole is going to have limited time to learn the new system, and this definitely works against CJ2K. he still has a career 5.0 yards per carry average but in 2010 only had a 4.3. That’s a significant decline for the guy we all hastily pegged as the best fantasy back. As of right now, I think Chris Johnson carries a lot of risk and that’s what all fantasy owners want to avoid with their first draft choice. Sure his talent alone will allow him to post some big stat lines but like last year, where he had 6 games of 6 points or less, I expect more of those until they learn their new offense. He’s medium risk/high reward in 2011.
6. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens RB. 24 Years Old. 4th Season.
Get ready ladies and gentleman. I think this is finally the year the Ravens realize Willis McGahee doesn’t deserve to steal this great running backs precious touchdowns. News right now is that McGahee is owed $6 million next season and unless he takes a pay cut will not asked to return and I hope he more the greedy type. Last year Rice started off sluggish while the Ravens played with their new receiving toys Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmanzadeh and if you remove his first four outings in which he didn’t score a touchdown, he finished the last 12 games with 1472 yards from scrimmage and 6 touchdowns. I expect him to be fully involved in the offense next year and will also start receiving his share of the goal line carries. The Ravens are going to need him to be great if they expect to contend again and my money is they contend. I expect a bounce back year for Ray Rice and would be happy to build my team around him in 2011.
7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars RB. 25 Years Old. 6th Season.
This is a running back who I myself feel I may still be overvaluing but his numbers warrant his ranking. In five seasons as the Jaguars premier back he has averaged 275 touches a game. That’s a lot of tread on this young man’s tires and eventually it may have to give. MJD is a great back, no doubt but I have absolutely no faith in the pieces around him. In fact I am shocked every year that they win as many games as they do. He basically is the entire offense and teams know this yet he’s been unstoppable but that said, he is a running back I always tend to avoid. This offense needs a lot of help and strictly cannot rely on MJD alone and if they do then I don’t know he lasts another five seasons. I like him as the seventh best running back because I respect the numbers he put up, but last year he fell from 15 to 5 touchdowns the year prior and I think that’s about all you should expect again in 2011.
8. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons RB. 29 Years Old. 8th Season.
I was surprised to see that Turner is turned 29 this February. That’s a tough number to hear from your stud running back and a guy, who like Jones-Drew, has gotten a lot of wear on his treads. What makes him appealing though is the fact that his team is very good. The Falcons have all the pieces one could want in a football team with a competent quarterback, good head coach and great wide receiver that takes pressure off the Burner. Last year he rebounded from a poor injury plagued 2009, but the Falcons gave him 334 handoffs and he had his lowest yards per carry average ever at 4.1. Still a decent average, but I wonder how he’ll respond the following year. In 2008 they gave him 376 carries and that alone probably cost him the 2009 178 carry in 11 games debacle. I think given his age, usage in 2010 and Jason Snelling proving to be valuable make him the riskiest running back in my top 12. The number are there to warrant him being a top back still but he his high risk/high reward approaching 30 years old.
9. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles RB. 22 Years Old. 3rd Season.
McCoy had a tremendous sophomore season for the Eagles in 2010. He achieved his first 1,000 yard season on only 207 carries having a 5.2 yards per average. On top of that, he was the perfect safety valve for Michael Vick to dump the ball too adding 78 receptions for 592 yards. Entering his third year, Michael Vick will be back and being that he is a threat with his feet makes it hard for defenses to key on McCoy leading me to believe he only improves in 2011. He’s a dynamic back that can make things happen like Jamaal Charles but like Charles, isn’t used much around the goal line. Other than that though, he’s still a lock for 20 touches a game and you couldn’t ask for more from a RB1 in fantasy.
10. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders RB. 23 Years Old. 4th Season.
Run DMC finally had the year people expected of him when the Raiders drafted him with their 4th pick in 2008 out of Arkansas. After 2 seasons of less than 500 yards on the ground, McFadden lit it up last year with 1157 rushing yards, 507 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns in 13 games. That’s the only problem with McFadden is that he is brittle. He has yet to play a full season but the fact he finally proved his value makes him a quality RB1 for your fantasy team in 2011 with either a late first round or early second round selection. The Raiders finally got themselves back to .500 in 2010 after an 8 year drought and seem to be a team on the uptick. It also helps that they play in the AFC West where defense seems to go to die. I love his explosiveness and versatility at the position and but if you’re going to draft him in 2011, definitely follow him with another running back just in case. You can’t rely on him as a solo show just yet.
11. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams RB. 27 Years Old. 7th Season.
The lost man. Steven Jackson may just be the most talented running back in all of football. He’s 6’2”, 235lbs, can run over you, around you and has great hands. His only problem was the Rams have been a horror show for most of his career. That all changed last season with the addition of a competent quarterback named Sam Bradford. Finally, Jackson has someone that defenses need to respect and will no longer stack 8-in-the-box against him and at 27 years old, I still think SJax has a few good years left in his tank. Last year he had his worst yards per average, but to his credit, the receiving core was injured all year long. Bradford never had a chance to grow with a wide out and I think they address that in the off season. I see no reason why the Rams can’t win their division in 2011 and I think Steven Jackson will finally have over 10 TD’s which he’s done only once in 2006. I still like him as a solid RB1 and finally has some upside to boot.
12. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers RB. 27 Years Old. 7th Season.
Last but not least I am taking Frank Gore was the final running back in my rankings. Look, I can’t tell you a fractured hip doesn’t scare me, but all reports out of San Francisco have said that he’ll be more than ready to go. Thankfully it happened early enough in the season that he got more time than just an offseason to heal up. Will it ever be full strength? Maybe not, but the 49ers finally got themselves an offensive minded head coach with Jim Harbaugh who should be able to use Gore better than Singletary could. The 49ers are a team with tons of talent but no direction and Harbaugh should bring that to them. I also think Alex Smith will be replaced as well, but if not, Harbaugh should be able to get more out him than anyone ever has. I think Gore has his risks definitely, but he’s still young enough to do some damage and plays in a division that he could dominate with the right system. He still finished as the 20th best running back in fantasy last year misses the last quarter of the season. I would draft him early 2nd round and pair him with another one of these 12 studs if possible in 2011.
Again, ranking in March are probably worthless, and I certainly will change my opinions based on whatever new information comes about. But right now, this is how I would rank these 12 fantastic running backs. There are some decent options I left out of these but it’s only because there is more risk involved than any of these guys. Cases could be made for LeGarrette Blount, Knowhson Moreno, Peyton Hillis, Matt Forte and Shonn Greene but for right now, these 12 are the least risky in my book and I will need one of them on my 2011 fantasy team.
I hope you enjoyed my Friday Fantasy Feast, and all year long I plan on giving you rankings, player profiles, draft strategy and game day strategies every Friday here on Burl’s Sports Beat.
Please, let me know your thoughts and who you’re high on in 2011.
Keep it classy San Diego,
-BurL
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