Friday's Fantasy Feast: Early Top 12 QB Ranks!

***These are my own opinions of fantasy football. As I do work for BrunoBoys.net, these ranking are in no way associated with Bruno Boys. What your about to read and any fantasy information I write about here going forward is of my opinion only***

Super Bowl and Fantasy Champ

Another week goes by and we still have no idea whether we will be playing fantasy football in 2011. The players are starting to talk a little too much for my tastes with one comparing the NFL to slavery and another saying that the commissioner is a liar and doesn’t care, but either way, I still love analyzing fantasy football and this week it’s the quarterbacks.

The best thing about the NFL turning into a pass first, run second league is the sheer amount of quality options at the position for 2011. There are more than 12 players I could be comfortable rolling out in my fantasy roster which means that every team in standard 10 and 12 team leagues should be able to have a quality option no matter what round one decides to pull the trigger.

For this reason, I for one, will be in the group that doesn’t take a quarterback in the first round, no matter my position, because I feel passing up on a quality running back could be detrimental to my season with so few options available. If I am drafting on the back end of drafts, unless Aaron Rodgers or Michael Vick are available to me at the start of the second round than I probably won’t own them in any league next year. Also, if I am drafting from the front of drafts, I expect Rodgers and Vick to be gone by my round two selection and I believe I would still rather add another running back or wide receiver to my team before I pull the trigger on any of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Philip Rivers unless I am staring at them to start the third round.

-Check my Top 12 Running Back and Top 12 Wide Receiver rankings to see who not to pass up on-

Again, there are a slew of great options at quarterback in the NFL that can help lead you too fantasy championships so because of that I want to make sure I am deep in the running back and wide receiver categories as the consistent options for these positions thin out as you enter rounds five and beyond. I won’t knock anyone for taking anyone of the six aforementioned quarterbacks mind you, but I like to let people know where my strategy lies for the upcoming 2011 season.

Before I get to my top 12 quarterbacks rankings for next season, it’s imperative to analyze last years preseason top 12 and actual top 12 quarterbacks in standard scoring leagues. (Passing Yards, 25=1 point, Interceptions = -2, Passing touchdowns = 4 points, 10 rush & receiving yards = 1 point, 1 touchdown = 6 points.) I used ESPN preseason projections; I know some may not like their rankings but the 12 guys on this list were pretty much the 12 quarterbacks everyone had anyway; just ordered a bit differently.

Reminder: Making rankings at all are nothing more than educated guesses; no one can ever be 100% positive on where guys will fall by year’s end as there are so many factors, and in March no less they are pretty useless, but fantasy football aficionados everywhere (like me) love to hear where people are valued compared to where you yourself value them.

2010 ESPN Preseason Top 12 Rankings

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

4. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

5. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

6. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

7. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

8. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings

9. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

10. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

11. Eli Manning, New York Giants

12. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles

Actual Top 12 Quarterback Finish in 2010. 

1. Michael Vick – Eagles

3018 Pass Yds, 21 TD’s, 6 Int’s. 676 Rush Yds, 9 TD’s 3 Fum. 300 Fan Pts.

2. Aaron Rodgers –Packers

3922 Pass Yds, 28 TD’s, 11 Ints’s. 356 Rush Yds, 4 TD’s, 1 Fum.292 Fan Pts.

3. Tom Brady – Patriots

3900 Pass Yds, 36 TD’s, 4 Int’s. 30 Rush Yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum. 289 Fan Pts.

4. Peyton Manning – Colts

4700 Pass Yds, 33 TD’s, 17 Int’s. 18 Rush Yds, 1 Fum. 279 Fan Pts.

5. Philip Rivers – Chargers

4710 Pass Yds, 30 TD’s, 13 Int’s. 52 Rush Yds, 4 Fum. 270 Fan Pts.

6. Drew Brees –  Saints 

4620 Pass Yds, 33 TD’s, 22 Int’s. -3 Rush Yds, 2 Fum. 263 Fan Pts.

7. Josh Freeman –  Buccaneers 

3451 Pass Yds, 25 TD’s, 6 Int’s. 364 Rush Yds. 3 Fum. 246 Fan Pts.

8. Matt Ryan – Falcons    

3705 Pass Yds, 28 TD’s, 9 Int’s. 122 Rush Yds, 3 Fum. 238 Fan Pts.

9. Matt Schaub – Texans   

4370 Pass Yds, 24 TD’s, 12 Int’s. 28 Rush Yds, 3 Fum. 237 Fan Pts.

10. Eli Manning –  Giants  

4002 Pass Yds, 31 TD’s, 25 Int’s. 70 Rush Yds, 5 Fum. 221 Fan Pts.

11. Joe Flacco –  Ravens

3622 Pass Yds, 25 TD’s, 10 Int’s. 84 Rush Yds, 1 TD, 4 Fum. 221 Fan Pts.

12. Matt Cassel – Chiefs  

3116 Pass Yds, 27 TD’s, 7 Int’s. 125 Rush Yds, 1 Fum. 217 Fan Pts.

Unlike the top 12 running backs and wide receivers which had half of the projected top 12 actually finish as such, the quarterbacks had 8 of them. They probably would have had nine had Tony Romo not went down with an injury, but what this does show is just how many above average options the quarterback position has, fantasy wise, further backing up my position that one can truly grab a quality quarterback in almost any round of all 2011 standard 10 and 12 team drafts.

I don’t think anyone saw the utter downfall of Brett Favre, even though most expected him to not be as great in 2010 as he was in 2009, but the Vikings were a mess all year. Kevin Kolb may have finished in the top 12 as well had he not gotten concussed forcing the Eagles into playing Michael Vick who played off the charts finishing as the number one fantasy quarterback despite only playing in 11 and a quarter games. Also Josh Freeman and Matt Ryan had terrific seasons in 2010 and both have great running attacks and a solid wide receiver making it hard to think they can’t repeat or exceed their 2010 campaigns in 2011.

So again, the 12 quarterbacks I am about to rank obviously vary in capability and consistency, but all are in such solid positions with solid supporting casts that depending on how certain drafts go I would feel confident rolling out any of them for full length of my 2011 fantasy season. The NFL is passing league now, 4 and 5 wide receiver sets are the norm and that only makes a once hard roster position for everyone to fill become a position that every team in standard 10 and 12 team league should have no problem getting adequate production from.

Here are my top 12 quarterbacks for 2011, in March.

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 6’2” 225 lbs. 27 Yrs Old. 7^th Season.

Since taking over the Packers starting job from Brett Favre in 2008, Aaron Rodgers has been nothing short of spectacular. He finished 2010 with 3922 yards passing, 28 touchdowns and added 356 rushing yards and another 4 touchdowns. He would have his third consecutive 4,000 yard season had he not missed a game with a concussion but still finished with an incredible 101.2 quarterback rating. He led his team to a Super Bowl XLV almost single-handedly as he achieved this great season despite numerous injuries. Next year he’ll get back a dominate tight end in Jermichael Finley, Donald Driver will return and can still be a decent possession guy, he established Jordy Nelson as threat during the playoff run, running back Ryan Grant will return and give him a more stable running game and oh yeah, wide receiver Greg Jennings is still a number one go-to option. Rodger has all the skills anyone would look for in a quarterback, he’s accurate, makes good decisions, is athletic in the pocket and also has the intangibles where he can make things happen even when the pocket protection breaks down. He should be the first quarterback taken in all drafts next year with a middle to late first round selection.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles, 6’0” 215 lbs. 30 Yrs Old. 10^th Season.

He abused my GMen in that 4th quarter, yuck!

Like many people, I for one did not see Michael Vick’s dominating 2010 season coming. I thought he was just about done in football and thought at 30 years old and missing two seasons, Vick would lose his athletic edge and also would prove to be an ineffective pocket passer. Wrong on all accounts. Vick put together the best season of his career in 2010 and seemed to mature as a quarterback. He threw for over 3,000 yard for the first time ever, completed over 62% of his passes for the first time ever and rushed for the most touchdowns in a season with 9 than he ever had previously. Vick is certainly a monster on any fantasy team but he doesn’t come without some risk. For one, injuries will always be an issue with a quarterback who still thinks run every time he takes a snap. But because he thinks run, even on days where he may struggle passing, he can make up his points on the ground. Having LeSean McCoy in the backfield makes it hard for teams to spy him, he has a quality possession receiver in Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson is the perfect complement for Vicks cannon arm with his deep threat ability. I think Vick wshould be drafted with a late first early second round pick in 2011 drafts but make sure you target a Sam Bradford or Matt Cassel type back up in later rounds to hedge the games Vick will almost certainly miss.

***I place Rodgers and Vick in a tier of their own. Unlike the next group of quarterbacks, these two give you the passing stats but also the running stats that make them much more dynamic fantasy options.***

3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts, 6’5” 230 lbs. 34 Yrs Old. 14^th Season.

There is nothing not to love about having Peyton Manning as your fantasy squad’s quarterback in any season and 2011 should be no different. Last year, despite having no running game, a shaky offensive line, injuries to numerous passing options namely tight end Dallas Clark and wide receivers Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez and Pierre Garcon, Peyton Manning has one of his best statistical seasons. He threw for a career high of 4700 passing yards, had 679 completions which was the first time he’s ever had over 600 ever and also broke the 30+ passing touchdown mark for the sixth time in his terrific career. The best part of Peyton Manning is you know exactly what you’re going to get. He is the Indianapolis Colts offense. He has never missed a game in his career and you never have to worry about who he is playing on any given week because you’re never benching him. In 2011 I expect nothing but another incredible season for Peyton as I expect the Colts to bolster their offensive line and also add a running back to help give Peyton better play action help. I also don’t believe the Colts can suffer the injury woes that they did last year and he should get full use out of Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark but if they do, then we know Peyton can make things happen with anyone on the field because he is pin point accurate. Look for Peyton Manning to be drafted in the middle of the second round in all drafts in 2011.

4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints, 6’0” 209 lbs. 32 Yrs Old. 11^th Season.

Like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees is a quarterback that a fantasy player can drool over. After a slow start to his 2010 campaign (blame a Super Bowl hangover), Brees finished with another spectacular statistical season. It was his fifth consecutive season throwing for over 4350 yards, his third consecutive 33+ passing touchdowns and he was as accurate as ever completing over 68% of his passes. His biggest knock in 2010 was that he threw a career high 22 interceptions; something I expect him to get under control in 2011. Part of those interceptions had to do with the Saints lack of a consistent running presence. The Saints should benefit from the return of Pierre Thomas who will hopefully stabilize the ground attack and force defenses to respect the running game something they didn’t need to do much in 2010. The best part about Drew Brees is you know what you’re going to get. The New Orleans Saints are a pass first team, much like the Colts and Packers and Brees is going to be throwing more often than not. Having Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Robert Meachem give him quality options to throw too and the late season surge of tight end Jimmy Graham has allowed the Saints to part ways with Jeremy Shockey and I feel Graham is a much better passing threat and another weapon at Brees disposal. Expect to draft Brees with in the middle of round 2 of all drafts in 2011.

5. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers, 6’5” 228 lbs. 29 Yrs Old. 8^th Season.

What can’t Philip Rivers do at the quarterback position? A year after the San Diego Chargers got rid of their hall of fame running back Ladainian Tomlinson, a stellar receiving threat, lost number one wide receiving threat Vincent Jackson, dealt with injuries to the best tight end in football Antonio Gates and also receiver Malcolm Floyd, Philip Rivers had the best statistical season of his career. Of course he did! Philip Rivers may come off as arrogant and obnoxious at times, but he is a phenomenal quarterback in the NFL. Last year he led all quarterbacks throwing for 4710 yards, ten more yards than Peyton Manning on almost 100 fewer completions, had 30 touchdowns and finished with a remarkable 101.8 quarterback rating (down from his previous 2 seasons of 105.5 and 104.4 but not too shabby). I expect Philip Rivers to have another incredible year in 2011 as he should be getting Antonio Gates at full strength and he’ll have Vincent Jackson for one full season of play. Vincent Jackson can only make his job easier and if running back Ryan Mathews can establish himself as even a decent running threat, Rivers and the Chargers will be looking to return to the playoffs in 2011. Expect to find Rivers in drafts in the middle to late second round in 2011.

6. Tom Brady, New England Patriots, 6’4” 225 lbs. 33 Yrs Old. 12^th Season.

If you would have told me before last year that Tom Brady would throw for 3900 yards and 36 touchdowns in 2010, I would have said “of course!” But if you told me he would do all that without the help of wide receiver Randy Moss, a down year for Wes Welker, two rookie tight ends, and something called Danny Woodhead, I would have called you crazy. That’s just what Tom Brady did in 2010. What’s was even more amazing was the fact that this was only the second time in Brady’s career that he eclipsed 30+ touchdown passes and under double digit interceptions (he threw only 4, yes 4). Sure Tom has his haters, people shun his good looks, his model girlfriends and love when he does things like the video posted here, but what we can never call him is an over rated quarterback. Despite the incredible season last year, the New England Patriots as a whole under Belechick are one of the hardest teams to decipher. Next year Belechick may decide to be a run first team, or they run more goal line runs than passes and being that is was only the second 30+ touchdown pass season, odds are Brady will return to a sub 30 touchdown campaign next year, but he’s still a money quarterback. He’s accurate, makes great decisions and keeps turnovers to a minimum which is why he should be drafted toward the end of round two in 2011 fantasy drafts.

***The four quarterbacks above are very similar and are really more of a preference on who you like better. The best part about all four is that you don’t really need to bother drafting a back up being that you’ll be wasting a roster space as you’ll only start them once. I would just make a one week pick up with a Ryan Fitzpatrick, Alex Smith or Jason Campbell type quarterback who I’ll immediately dump after I use them. By drafting one of these guys you’ll be able to add more depth at whatever position your lacking in which could make for great trade bait or help should injuries occur.***

7. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys, 6’2” 223lbs. 30 Yrs Old. 9^th Season.

Before the New York Giants (what what) ended Tony Romo’s 2010 season in week 6, Romo was off to another great season statistically. He had already thrown for 1600 yards and 11 touchdowns and probably would have finished with one of his best seasons thus far. I believe he will do just that in 2011. Tony Romo has a career 95.5 passer rating and has done this under the tutelage of two defensive minded coaches in Bill Parcels and Wade Phillips, a head case wide receiver Terrell Owens and constant media bombardment of his numerous love interests. In 2011, Tony will finally have a head coach who is offensive minded in Jason Garrett (a former quarterback himself) but will also have a bevy of fantastic receiving options. Miles Austin has established himself as a threat, Jason Witten led all tight ends last year with 90 receptions and most importantly, second year wide out Dez Bryant, under Romo, should establish himself as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL. I expect Garrett to get better production from Felix Jones, who also has decent hands, and Tony Romo is all set to have one of the best seasons of his career. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished as a top 5 fantasy quarterback in 2011, I just don’t know which of my top six before him would fall. What makes Romo a great fantasy option is his value, I expect you to be able to draft him from the middle of the third round until late in the fourth round but get equal production to the four guys I rank ahead of him. If you’re not one to bite on a quarterback early, waiting for Romo later on could help you tremendously in 2011.

8. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers,  6’5” 241 lbs. 29 Yrs Old. 8^th Season.

He'll be great one year removed from his off field issues.

After being forced to sit for the first 4 games of 2010 for off the field issues, Ben Roethlisberger stepped right back in to the Steelers offense had a remarkable year despite. Leading the Steelers to their third Super Bowl appearance under his tenure and after the issues he faced was a testament to just how good he truly is. Now he’s never been the greatest fantasy option seeing as he plays for a run first, defensive orientated team, he is more than serviceable because as he’s aged, Big Ben has gotten better in his decision making. In 12 games last year he threw for 3200 yards (267 per game), 17 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. What makes Big Ben so great as well is his intangible factor; the ability to turn a broken play into a home run. Being that Rashard Mendenhall has become a threat, Big Ben uses Speedster Mike Wallace perfectly in play action is the two of them are good for a deep connection in almost every game. Hines Ward will return and despite his age, can still be a quality passion man and receiver Emanuele Sanders started to come on late last season and should help Ben in 2011. Roethlisberger may not get you many huge fantasy outputs but he’s stable and will give you consistent production all year long. I expect Roethlisberger to available between rounds seven and nine in 2011 drafts and has sleeper written all over him as a few of the quarterbacks I rank after him will probably go before him.  

9. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans, 6’5” 240 lbs. 29 Yrs Old. 8^th Season.

Despite finishing the season with great numbers, most would say Houston’s Matt Schaub had a pretty down year. This was due to the fact that in five of his first eight games last year he recorded single digit fantasy points and probably ended seasons for most fantasy owners who expected more. This was largely due to the establishment of running back Arian Foster who head coach Gary Kubiak relied on maybe too much during stretches of games and I expect in 2011 for the Texans to try and balance their play calling more. Schaub has weapons still as obviously Andre Johnson is a one man fantasy terminator but he will also return tight end Owen Daniels who finally  was able to get on the field late in 2010 and show that he can still be as good as he had been in previous years. The Texans have nothing but youth and upside but have yet to realize it, but for fantasy purposes, Schaub is a quality quarterback option who should eclipse over 4,000 yards for a third consecutive season and knock on the door of 30 touchdowns in 2011. I expect him to be drafted between rounds five and eight in all drafts in August.  

10. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6’6” 248 lbs. 23 Yrs Old. 3^rd Season.

Look for an even better third year for the big QB.

Josh Freeman had an incredible sophomore season and his play was instrumental in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers resurgence in 2010. Freeman threw for 3451 yards, 25 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions but also showed tremendous athleticism for a man his size as he ran for the second most yards by a quarterback with 364. The Buccaneers as whole are a team on the rise, Freeman established a solid wide receiving threat with rookie Mike Williams, has a decent tight end I expect them to use more in 2011 in Kellen Winslow and another rookie Arrelious Benn showed promise before going down with injury. 2011 should only make for a better year as these players get more experience together. While Freeman won’t get you huge earth shattering performances (had only 1 game of 20 fantasy points or more in 2010 with 31), he won’t leave you high and dry with no production (only 1 game last season with less than 11 fantasy points, 6). He’s showed that he’s consistent, will take what defenses give him but as he gets more comfortable surely coach Raheem Morris will start to open up the game plan for him to grow. I like Freeman as a low end quarterback 1 and you could be able to draft him between rounds 7 and 9 in all fantasy drafts in 2011. I would target a decent back up as well.

11. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, 6’4” 220 lbs. 25 Yrs Old. 4^th Season.

Matt Ryan has all the potential to be one of the best quarterback options in football. He took a franchise that seemed lost after Michael Vick went to prison and took them to an NFC best 13-3 record in 2010. With one of the game’s best wide receivers in Roddy White and sure firs hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez it’s no surprise Ryan put together his best season last year with 3705 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. The biggest knock on him is that he isn’t as great on the road as he is at home but then again really? Last year he averaged 13.5 fantasy points on the road versus 16 at home. But is that discrepancy really that big, 2.5 points? Part of the reason he didn’t throw for more is that the Falcons still want to run first having Michael Turner in the back field but also, he has to rely so much on Roddy White as they have been unable to find a receiver to establish themselves as a second guy. I expect the Falcons to address this situation in 2011 and I think Matt Ryan can exceed his 2010 numbers making him a great quarterback 1 option. I would still draft a quality back up for him just in case but look for him to be available to you between rounds 7 and 9 in 2011 drafts.

12. Eli Manning, New York Giants, 6’4” 225 lbs. 30 Yrs Old. 8^th Season.

Of course Eli Manning is not his brother Peyton in any way shape or form, but for fantasy purposes, like the 11 ranked above him is another solid fantasy option at his position. Despite playing for a Giants team that will always look to run first, Eli has gotten progressively better statistically in each year he’s played. Last season he threw for his second consecutive 4,000 yard campaign and went over 30+ touchdowns for the first time and did so without his best possession receiver Steve Smith, who went down early with an ACL injury. He established Hakeem Nicks as a top receiving option in the NFL and Mario Manningham proved to be a great option as well; both should open the door for another very productive season as long as he can get his interceptions under control. To his credit though, almost a third of his career high 25 interceptions last year were due to receivers dropping easy catches and them landing in defenses hands (A Giants homer stat I know but still). Had he gotten those under control he would have had an even better season but will still be able to help your fantasy franchise in 2011. Look for him to be drafted between rounds 8 and 10 in fantasy drafts next year but targeting a back up should be a high priority.

So there you have it, those are my top 12 quarterback options for fantasy in 2011. The best part about all these players are they all have ability to put up tremendous quarterback 1 type numbers. That means that basically every team in standard 10 and 12 team leagues should have a stable option under center which is why I wouldn’t pull the trigger too early on a quarterback and miss out on quality running backs and wide receivers in 2011.

Also, their can be cases to be made for Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford, Matt Cassel, and Carson Palmer or Kevin Kolb (if they are on another team). So again, so many options to choose from in 2011. Thanks the NFL for making it hard to cover receivers year in and year out. 

Next week I will break down the tight ends for next year as we all know last year they ended up being more of a head ache for everyone than anything with all the injuries that occurred.

I hope you all are enjoying March Madness, but I will always have football on the brain.

-BurL