Friday, March 11, 2011

Friday's Fantasy Feast: Early Top 12 WR Ranks!

***These are my own opinions of fantasy football. As I do work for BrunoBoys.net, these ranking are in no way associated with Bruno Boys. What your about to read and any fantasy information I write about here going forward is of my opinion only***

Jerry Rice
If only I could have him on my fantasy roster
Well, the owners or players wouldn’t budge so it looks as though we may not have football for at least the regularly scheduled start of the 2011 season but it doesn’t mean we still can’t have some early fantasy football preparation! I have my views on that subject and will bring those to you all on Monday, but now this is dedicated to the game I still begrudgingly love and am quite addicted to.

Last Friday I brought you my Top 12 Running Backs heading into next season and this week I want to get you geared up for the wide receivers that I see dominating in 2011.

Personally, I love trying to grab RB/RB in rounds 1 and 2, but if a stud wide receiver is sitting there depending on how a draft goes, than by all means I will grab him. Wide receivers are a whole different demon in fantasy football as opposed to running backs. Where there are so few options at running back every year that dominate the ball, there are always a plethora of wide receivers available and it seems every week there is someone on the waiver wire to help out at the position when in need.

That said, there are reasons why this is so. For years now the NFL has made it easier and easier for the wide receivers of the league to get open and harder for cornerback to cover (making Darelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha such precious commodities and defensive anomalies). Despite this, you’d think there would be more solid stud wide receiving options but truth be told, so many teams now employ 4 and 5 wide receiver sets that on any given week, the stud wide receivers don’t always end up as the weeks best performers.

This is why, in my opinion heading into 2011, if you have a chance to have two stud running backs in the first two rounds, you’ll definitely be able to add quality wide receivers that will produce, only they will be more of a headache figuring out which one will go off on any given week. So, despite their being lots of options at the wide receiving position in general, if you have any of the 12 guys that I am about to rank, you certainly won’t be disappointed.

Before I get to my top twelve wide receiver rankings for next season, it’s imperative to analyze last years preseason top 12 and actual top 12 running backs in standard scoring leagues. (10 rush & receiving yards = 1 point, 1 touchdown = 6 points.) I used ESPN preseason projections; I know some may not like their rankings but the 12 guys on this list were pretty much the 12 wide receivers everyone had anyway; just ordered a bit differently.

Reminder: Making rankings at all are nothing more than educated guesses; no one can ever be 100% positive on where guys will fall by year’s end as there are so many factors, and in March no less they are pretty useless, but fantasy football aficionados everywhere (like me) love to hear where people are valued compared to where you yourself value them.

2010 ESPN Preseason Top 12 Rankings

1. Andre Johnson – Houston Texans
2. Randy Moss – Tennessee Titans
3. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals
4. Reggie Wayne – Indianapolis Colts
5. Brandon Marshall – Miami Dolphins
6. Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons
7. Calvin Johnson – Detroit Lions
8. Miles Austin – Dallas Cowboys
9. DeSean Jackson – Philadelphia Eagles
10. Steve Smith – Carolina Panthers
11. Greg Jennings – Green Bay Packers
12. Marques Colston – New Orleans Saints

Actual Top 12 Wide Receiver Finish in 2010

1. Brandon Lloyd, Broncos –    77 Rec, 1448 Yards, 11 TD’s. 153 Tar. 203 Fan Pts.
2. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs –        72 Rec, 1162 Yards, 15 TD’s. 132 Tar. 200 Fan Pts.
3. Roddy White, Falcons –      115 Rec, 1389 Yards, 10 TD’s. 179 Tar. 193 Fan Pts.
4. Greg Jennings, Packers –     76 Rec, 1265 Yards, 12 TD’s. 125 Tar. 193 Fan Pts.
5. Calvin Johnson, Lions –        77 Rec, 1120 Yards, 12 TD’s. 137 Tar. 182 Fan Pts.
6. Mike Wallace, Steelers –     60 Rec, 1257 Yards, 10 TD’s. 100 Tar. 182 Fan Pts.
7. Hakeem Nicks, Giants –       79 Rec, 1052 Yards, 11 TD’s. 128 Tar. 165 Fan Pts.
8. Andre Johnson, Texans –        86 Rec, 1216 Yards, 8 TD’s. 138 Tar. 164 Fan Pts.
9. Reggie Wayne, Colts –          111 Rec, 1355 Yards, 6 TD’s. 173 Tar. 162 Fan Pts.
10. Steve Johnson, Bills –          82 Rec, 1073 Yards, 10 TD’s. 143 Tar. 157 Fan Pts.
11. DeSean Jackson, Eagles –       47 Rec, 1056 Yards, 6 TD’s. 96 Tar. 152 Fan Pts.
                                                                            *104 Rush Yards, 1 TD, 1 Ret TD.
12. Mike Williams, Buccaneers – 65 Rec, 964 Yards, 11 TD’s. 127 Tar. 151 Fan Pts.

So just like the running backs, half of the preseason top 12 wide receivers actually finished the season in the top 12. What’s wild about the wide receivers is that of the 6 that finished in the top 12; most weren’t even on anyone's radar. Brandon Lloyd finished as the best overall in 2010 but was an eight year veteran who was playing for his fourth team who never even had a season recording half the production. Another player, Mike Williams of Tampa Bay, was a rookie and usually it takes a wide receiver three years to become effective. Then Steve Johnson was a no name who made something of a struggling Buffalo Bills offense and would’ve finished even higher had God not did him wrong when he dropped that ball in the end zone. Add to it two second year men in Hakeem Nicks and Mike Wallace and you have quite a nice mix of veterans and newbies to drool over.

I think those players alone help show that the NFL is definitely becoming more of a passing league and that the rules the NFL employs for cornerbacks makes their job tough. Probably the hardest on the defensive side of the football. But, it will make fantasy football much better as lots of wide receivers are going to catch lots of balls for lots and lots of touchdowns. 

Oh yeah, isn’t it amazing how Randy Moss was such a lock pick preseason? Brutal for those who drafted him in 2010. He isn’t making this list. 

So that said, there are 12 wide receivers that no matter what are going to command attention in 2011, justifiably so, and will solidify a roster spot on your team as they should be played every week regardless of who covers them (except Revis and Asomugha, maybe). Without further adieu, here are my 12 must have wide receivers for 2011, as of March.

Burl’s Top 12 Wide Receivers for 2011

1. Roddy White. Atlanta Falcons WR. 6’0” 212lbs. 29 Yrs Old. 7th Season

falcons.1201
Get off me! 
Entering his 7th season, Roddy White, to me, has become the top wide receiver in the game for numerous reasons. First, his quarterback Matt Ryan is in love with him and it shows as he’s been a leader in targets the past few seasons and had 179 of them in 2010. Second, after three straight seasons of of 80+ receptions and over 1150 yards, last year he led the league with 115 receptions and added 1389 yards. He has amazing hands and seems to never drop a ball thrown his way and seeing as the Falcons finished with an NFC best record of 13-3; if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I expect Roddy White to have another fantastic season in 2011 and should be the first wide receiver taken near the end of the 1st or early 2nd round.

2. Calvin Johnson. Detroit Lions WR. 6’5” 236lbs. 25 Yrs Old. 5th Season.

Everyone has to love a 6’5” wide receiving monster nicknamed Megatron. Calvin Johnson is probably the most physically imposing player at his position and has all the skills you love your wide receiver to have. After struggling with rookie quarterback Mathew Stafford in 2009, Calvin rebounded back to his 2008 season last year posting 77 catches for 1120 yards and 12 touchdowns. Worst part about it was Stafford missed most the season with his shoulder and they seemed to be ready to do something special. I believe 2011 can be that year for this duo. With a healthy Jahvid Best keeping defenses honest, I think Calvin Johnson could be set up for a career year shattering his previous highs of 78 receptions, 1331 yards and 12 touchdowns. He can be safely drafted with a late 1st or early second round pick in 2011.

3. Andre Johnson. Houston Texans WR. 6’3” 225lbs. 29 Yrs Old. 9th Season.

Andre Johnson is a beast at wide receiver and everyone knows it. Entering his 9th year (has it been that long?) he should be set up again to produce big time numbers. The Texans have nothing but talent on their offensive side; Matt Schaub started slow in 2011 but the rise of Arian Foster give them a perfect running option to make sure Andre Johnson can get free on play action’s in 2011. My only knock on this great receiver is that he has failed to record double digit touchdowns in any season thus far of an otherwise great career. That said, I don’t see why this isn’t going to be that year. He also can be safely drafted late in the 1st round or early in the 2nd of all drafts in 2011.

Hakeem Nicks #1 draft pick
Get ready for an offensive explosion
- Honestly, I rate them 1a, 1b and 1c. I think these three wide receivers are the most talented and are in the best positions to make plays every Sunday for your fantasy team. Taking either one over the other won’t really make too much of a difference, comes down to preference really.

4. Hakeem Nicks. New York Giants WR. 6’0” 215lbs. 23 Yrs Old. 3rd Season.

Hakeem Nicks exploded on the scene in his second season last year recording 79 receptions, 1052 yards and a fantastic 11 touchdown grabs. What’s even better about those numbers is he did it missing three games and battling a bum ankle for many of them. Imagine what he could do with a full year under his belt and even better if Steve Smith can return from his injury which would ease his double coverage much more. Giants quarterback Eli Manning also finally found a red zone option he can have faith in since losing Plaxico Burress two seasons ago. I think Nicks is primed to out produce his 2010 season next year and will be a solid fixture in fantasy lineups for any who draft him in 2011. Look to grab Nicks in the middle of round 2 in all drafts.

5. Vincent Jackson. San Diego Chargers WR. 6’5” 230lbs. 28 Yrs Old. 7th Season.

Vincent Jackson’s contract dispute cost him 12 games last season much to fantasy owners dismay and fans of great wide receiving in general in 2011. With quarterback Phillip Rivers having such a fantastic season, Jackson could of put up a monster season with him and I believe that will be the case in 2011. I also believe Antonia Gates had such a tremendous year because of Vincent Jackson’s absence and despite missing all those games, in only his second game back he posted a 5 reception, 112 yard and 3 touchdown performance. I figure with a full season of production in an offense that wants to pass, Vincent Jackson should be the stud everyone expected to have last year. He can be safely taken in the middle of the 2nd round of drafts in 2011.

6. Larry Fitzgerald. Arizona Cardinals WR. 6’3” 218lbs. 27 Yrs Old. 8th Season.

I am not sure there is a more complete wide receiver in football like Larry Fitzgerald is. Last season the Arizona Cardinals were a mess on offense at the quarterback position and it really effected  Fitzgerald usual consistency. Despite that, he still had a great season finishing 3rd in receptions with 90 and 2nd in overall targets with 174. I think the Cardinals make a run at a veteran quarterback like Kevin Kolb, who could stabilize the position and elevate Fitzgerald right back into the top of the wide receiving ranks where he belongs. Right now he is a bit of a risk but should be able to get his touchdown numbers back in the double digits in 2011. He can be taken in the 2nd round of drafts in 2011.

7. Mike Wallace. Pittsburgh Steelers WR. 6’0” 199lbs. 24 Yrs Old. 3rd Season.

NFL STEELERS DEF BROWNS 27-13 FINAL !!!
Catch me if you can in 2011
It looks like Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger found Santonio Holmes replacement last year with home run hitter Mike Wallace. Despite only catching 60 balls in 2010, Wallace finished as the sixth best wide receiver in fantasy and showed just how much damage a speedy receiver can do with minimal balls thrown his way. The Steelers will always be a run first team but their play action may just be the best in football because of Mike Wallace’s capabilities. He posted seven 100 yard games in 2010 and scored at least one touchdown in 8 of them. He is a great number one wide receiver but is the ultimate risk/reward as well. He can be taken in the middle to late 2nd round of drafts in 2011.

8. Greg Jennings. Green Bay Packers WR. 5’11” 198lbs. 27 Yrs Old. 6th Season.

Greg Jennings had his best season ever in 2010, fantasy wise, recording 76 receptions for 1265 yards and 12 touchdowns helping lead his team to a Super Bowl XLV win. Despite that though, I think part of the reason his production was so stellar was the early loss of tight end Jermichael Finley. Quarterback Aaron Rodger was using Finely early and often before his injury but Jennings is also battling for balls with Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and maybe James Jones as well. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers spreads the ball around and certainly Jennings will have great games, but he could easily go from a 2010 12 touchdown season and resort back to his 2009 campaign where he only had 4 touchdowns. He is still a number one wide receiving option in 2011 but there is risk involved in drafting him. I figure Jennings to be a late 2nd round pick, possibly early 3rd in 2011 drafts.

9. Dwayne Bowe. Kansas City Chiefs WR. 6’2” 221lbs. 26 Yrs Old. 5th Season.
Other than Brandon Lloyd, no wide receiver burst on to the scene faster than Dwayne Bowe in 2010. Bowe had a career year posting 72 receptions, 1162 yards and an NFL best 15 touchdown grabs in 2010. He had a stretch where he recorded a touchdown in 7 straight games and in that span had 2 or more in five of them. Quarterback Matt Cassell will certainly be looking Bowe’s way in 2011 but I expect his touchdown numbers to decline but should still warrant him being a solid number one wide receiver. Remember, he finished 2011 having only one touchdown and one 100 yard effort in his last five games but should find more consistency with another year under his belt. Expect to get Bowe with an early 3rd round pick in 2011.

10. Dez Bryant. Dallas Cowboys WR. 6’2” 217lbs. 22 Yrs Old. 2nd Season.

Dez Bryant amazing catch vs Giants
Your gonna know my name in 2011
Being that every year a wide receiver bursts into the top, I think Dez Bryant will be that receiver in 2011. In his rookie year, he was phenomenal before his injury and seemed to replace Mile Austin as the go-to-guy when he was on the field. He recorded all 6 of his touchdowns in a six game stretch in the middle of the season and now with Jason Garrett as Head Coach, an offensive minded one too, Dez Bryant should find himself as the Cowboys heir apparent to Michael Irvin. Owner Jerry Jones didn’t don him the number 88 for nothing. Also add that Tony Romo missed more than half the season with injury and will return next year so expect nothing but big things in 2011 for Dez. He should be drafted with an early to middle 3rd round pick in 2011.

11. Mike Williams. Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR. 6’1” 212lbs. 23 Yrs Old. 2nd Season.

It’s rare for rookies to come to the NFL and make as immediate an impact and supplant themselves a go-to-guy but Syracuse alumni Mike Williams did just that in 2010. The Buccaneers are a team with nothing but youth and upside and quarterback Josh Freeman showed just the beginnings of great a tandem he and Mike Williams can be. Williams posted 65 receptions for 964 yards and was a red zone monster with 11 touchdowns. Things are only looking up for Mike Williams and we should expect him to add only more receptions and yardage in his sophomore campaign making him a solid number one wide receiver in 2011 for all fantasy teams. Can be drafted as high as late 2nd round or early 3rd round in 2011 drafts.

12. DeSean Jackson. Philadelphia Eagles WR.

DeSean Jackson is the true anomaly at his position of all the wide receivers ranked above him. He is undersized at 5’10” 175lbs but makes up for it and more with his versatility and athleticism. Despite only having 47 receptions in 2010, he posted over 1,000 yards averaging over 22 yards per grab. On top of that, he is a threat to run the ball occasionally and if your awarded return points or touchdowns he can do that too. He is a perfect complement for Michael Vick as once Vick is on the run; Jackson can immediately change his route and catch a deep ball at anytime. He is the ultimate risk vs. reward wide receiver and it will take a risky owner to rely on him as their number 1 receiver, but his play-making abilities certainly make him a top wide receiver in the NFL. Draft DeSean Jackson with an early 3rd round pick in 2011 drafts.

These are the top 12 wide receivers in my eyes for 2011 as of today. Who knows if we’ll even have a season, or how long of a season anyway, but I hope that we do and will continue to love the game despite the owners of it being greedy and selfish.

Next week I’ll give you my top 12 quarterbacks for 2011 and my show will go on because I drink tigers blood and have Adonis DNA. #WINNING

- BurL

2 comments:

Banjoe said...

OK Let's try this again. Nice column My Question is where u rank Miles Austin? I agree with u that Dez is the man. And as example in my draft last year at RB I took Bradshaw ahead of Jacobs, even before he was anointed the starter. Now, Austin was putting up good numbers w/Romo before he went down. So with Romo back,Where does that leave Austin's value?

BurL said...

I put Austin in the Top 15 about. I think Garrett will find ways to use his big 3 in Dez, Austin and Witten but I think Austin loses endzone looks. I put him right outside these twelve though with Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd (maybe), Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree. I don't think I would trust him as a #1 WR, but a very solid #2 for 2011