Fantasy Football Junkies

Friday's Fantasy Feast: Early Top 12 TE Ranks!

***These are my own opinions of fantasy football. As I do work for BrunoBoys.net, these ranking are in no way associated with Bruno Boys. What your about to read and any fantasy information I write about here going forward is of my opinion only***

Will Gates be the #1 option in 2011?

So we again have no movement on the CBA and are waiting for Judge Doty's decesion April 6th but fantasy is still on my brain and most every fantasy player. So lets go over the fantasy tight end position in 2011.

Was there a position in fantasy football last year that gave more owners headaches than the tight end? I mean we had major injuries to Dallas Clark and Jermichael Finley, minor nagging one to Antonio Gates, Zach Miller and Owen Daniels and then the Patriots Gronkowski vs. Hernandez debacle and it was just an all-around mess.

Heading into 2010 I think everyone though that the tight end position was one that would be full of production as 2009 gave us 10 players over 100 fantasy points but only 5 did that last year. I think 2011 the position as a whole gets better, of course as long as injuries move to a different position ;), because the position is so very deep. Obviously we have a few must start regardless options but then there are so many decent guys at there in decent situations that this position will be a hotly debated weekly start/sit nightmare between options.

But like my quarterback rankings, the good news is of course that there are more than 12 decent TE1’s out there so every team in standard 10 to 12 team drafts should be able land a guy that they can get production from and also get a good reserve option who may just become a prime tight end in the league.

Before I get to my top 12 tight end rankings for next season, it’s imperative to analyze last year’s preseason top 12 and actual top 12 tight ends in standard scoring leagues. (10 rush & receiving yards = 1 point, 1 touchdown = 6 points.) I used ESPN preseason projections; I know some may not like their rankings but the 12 guys on this list were pretty much the 12tight ends most had anyway; just ordered a bit differently.

Reminder: Making rankings at all are nothing more than educated guesses; no one can ever be 100% positive on where guys will fall by year’s end as there are so many factors, and in March no less they are pretty useless, but fantasy football aficionados everywhere (like me) love to hear where people are valued compared to where you yourself value them.

ESPN 2010 Projected Top 12 Tight End’s

1. Dallas Clark, Indianpolis Colts

2. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

3. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers

4. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers

5. Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles

6. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons

7. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

8. Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9. Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins

10. Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings

11. Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders

12. Owen Daniels, Houston Texans

Actual 2010 Top 12 Fantasy Tight End’s

1. Jason Witten, Cowboys – 94 Rec, 1002 Rec Yds, 9 TD, 128 Tar, 146 Fan Pts.

2. Antonio Gates, Chargers – 50 Rec, 782 Rec Yds, 10 TD, 66 Tar, 134 Fan Pts.

3. Vernon Davis, 49ers – 56 Rec, 914 Rec Yds, 7 TD, 93 Tar, 129 Fan Pts.

4. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars – 58 Rec, 700 Rec Yds, 10 TD, 88 Tar, 119 Fan Pts.

5. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – 42 Rec, 546 Rec Yds, 10 TD, 59 Tar, 107 Fan Pts.

6. Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers – 66 Rec, 730 Rec Yds, 5 TD, 98 Tar, 96 Fan Pts.

7. Chris Cooley, Redskins – 77 Rec, 849 Rec Yds, 3 TD, 127 Tar, 96 Fan Pts.

8. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons – 70 Rec, 656 Rec Yds, 6 TD, 111 Tar, 94 Fan Pts.

9. Zach Miller, Raiders – 60 Rec, 685 Rec Yds, 5 TD, 91 Tar, 90 Fan Pts.

10. Dustin Keller, Jets – 55 Rec, 687 Rec Yds, 5 TD, 101 Tar, 89 Fan Pts.

11. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – 45 Rec, 563 Rec Yds, 6 TD, 64 Tar, 89 Fan Pts.

12a. Benjamin Watson, Browns – 68 Rec, 763 Rec Yds, 3 TD, 102 Tar, 88 Fan Pts.

12b. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions – 71 Rec, 722 Rec Yds, 4 TD, 111 Tar, 88 Fan Pts.

 So 7 of the 12 projected best fantasy options finished in the top 12 but I still have to believe that had Dallas Clark and Jermichael Finley not gone down so early that they would esily have been fantasy factors in 2010. One of the biggest things I did notice about the position as a whole was the sheer drop off from only one season ago.

Heading into 2010, the tight end position seemed like one that was full of more than enough decent options and not having an elite guy wasn’t that detrimental to your season but in 2010 it turns out it was. In 2009, a total of 10 tight ends finished with more than 100 fantasy points while only 5 did that in 2010. Granted lots of guy were close enough, but still, the tight end position clearly wasn’t as big a factor in the NFL as us fantasy lovers would of liked it to be.

That said, I personally believe the tight end position will make a comeback next year and in a big way. With all the players that got injured last year and the amount of decent youngsters like Tony Moeaki, Jermaine Gresham and Michael Hoomanawanui coming into their own and Dallas Clark, Jermichael Finley and Owen Daniels getting healthy again, there should be very decent options at nearly every round in all 10 to 12 team standard fantasy drafts in 2011.

So that said, let’s get to my top 12 fantasy tight ends for 2011…in March.

1. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers, 6’5” 247 lbs, 23 Yrs Old, 4^th Season.

He'll finally be the stat BEAST we all want him to be!

Heading into 2010, Jermichael Finley was mostly a hype machine, but up until he got injured in Week 4 he was definitely living up to all of it. In the 4 games he did play for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers was obviously in love with him. If you watched any of those games, Finley was being targeted over and over and was able to record 2 games of over 103 receiving yards and got a touchdown in one of those. After winning the Super Bowl, Aaron Rodgers flat out said that he couldn’t wait to get back the “best tight end in football.” In that offense, with such an accurate quarterback, I think Finley is going to finally have the type of year fantasy owners salivate over. Don’t let him get by you in round 4 of 2011 fantasy drafts, he’s the real deal.

2. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers, 6’4” 260 lbs, 30 Yrs Old, 9^th Season.

It’s hard not to fall in love with Antonio Gates as for the last seven seasons he’s been nothing short of fantastic. Despite playing in only 10 games while battling a bum ankle, he was on pace to have arguably his best season to date. He had 50 receptions for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in those 10 games and finished as the league’s second best tight end overall! Pretty incredible. What’s even better about that is he did it while Vincent Jackson was gone and Malcolm Floyd was battling injury so teams had the opportunity to focus in him….and it didn’t matter. Gates is aging though and will be 31 heading into next year. He plays with a great quarterback and a perfect system for him but Rivers will be getting Jackson and Floyd back which could potentially cut into his production. I still love him and wouldn’t let him get out of round 4 in all drafts in 2011, despite the age, I think he has, at the very least, one more dominant season.

3. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys, 6’6” 263 lbs, 28 Yrs Old, 9^th Season.

So quarterback Tony Romo goes down for the year, the Cowboys fire head coach Wade Phillips mid season and Cowboys have a terrible season overall but what does Jason Witten do? Has only his best statistical season ever. He caught 94 balls on 128 targets for 1030 yards and a career high 9 touchdowns. This was his second consecutive 94 catch season and remarkably his seventh consecutive season playing in all 16 games. I expect new head coach Jason Garrett to keep Witten heavily involved in the Cowboys offense next year and with coverage’s being forced to target Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, he should have a lot of free running room across the middle and put up another fantastic season. He’s very reliable and should be taken late 4^th, early 5^th round in all 2011 fantasy drafts.

4. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts, 6’3” 252 lbs, 31 Yrs Old, 9^th Season.

Peyton will still have man crush on Dallas in 2011.

After finishing 2009 with 100 catches and 1106 yards, poor Dallas Clark caught the injury bug in Week 6 of 2010, missing the rest of the season. Despite turning 32 years old and coming off of injury, its hard to rank Dallas Clark any lower than this seeing as Peyton Manning is throwing him the ball. Before going down, Clark was well on his way to another great season having caught 37 balls (6 per game) for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns. I don’t expect Jacob Tamme to get much run while Clark is still on the team and would be hard pressed to jump on anyone ranked lower than him if he is still available. Peyton Manning will throw and he certainly will send many a ball Clarke’s way in 2011. Figure on taking Clark with a late 4^th, early 5^th round pick in all 2011 fantasy drafts.

5. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers, 6’3” 250 lbs, 27 Yrs Old, 6^th Season.

Vernon Davis had a sensational fantasy season in 2011 by going over 900 yards receiving for the second straight time. It was a little discerning that he caught only 56 receptions to his 78 the year before and that attributed to his touchdowns going from 13 in 2009 to 7 in 2010. Vernon Davis is a genetic freak as we all can see and easily the best receiving option the 49ers have, the only problem is whose throwing him the ball. As of today, new head coach Jim Harbaugh has said that Alex Smith is the starter in San Fran in 2011 and although he will certainly get Davis a good amount of catches, I think we would all love to see what a competent quarterback would be able to do for Davis. As good as Davis is, he is also very inconsistent as in 16 games last year he finished with 7 or fewer fantasy points and put up a goose egg in two of them. So while he will get you those dominant games, he could also kill your week as well. Figure Davis to be taken early to middle of the 5^th round of all 2011 fantasy drafts.

***Those are the top 5 clear cut fantasy tight ends and getting one of them on your roster is like adding a top tier wide receiver. Obviously there are injury concerns with three of them, but talent and history outweigh the risk. The rest of the tight ends I’m about to list have all the potential in the world and will hopefully help make the tight end position the deepest its ever been in 2011 allowing all 10 to 12 team fantasy leagues have a decent option.***

6. Owen Daniels, Houston Texans, 6’3” 250 lbs, 28 Yrs Old, 6^th Season.

After playing in only 8 games in 2009 and 11 games last year, it’s hard to want to have to rely on such a brittle option at tight end but Owen Daniels really closed out 2010 with a surge. In his final 4 games he had 22 catches for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns and showed that he can still be a viable fantasy option. Matt Schaub is a very good quarterback and the Texans still have a good amount of offensive firepower around Daniels and he should be the number two option in their passing game in 2011. Obviously there is risk with him so drafting a backup in the later rounds is worth your while, but if Daniels can remain healthy, he should have a great fantasy year. Look for him to come off of boards from the middle of the 6^th to middle of 7^th rounds in all fantasy drafts.

7. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions, 6’5” 265 lbs, 26 Yrs Old, 3^rd Season.

Pettigrew has all the tools to be a big threat in 2011.

After injuries ended his rookie campaign, Brandon Pettigrew proved to the Lions they didn’t waste a first round pick on him with an excellent 2011 campaign, by Lions standards. With Mathew Stafford sidelined with another shoulder injury, Pettigrew caught 71 balls for 722 yards and 4 touchdowns on 111 targets. If Stafford can have finally have a full season, there is no reason to believe Pettigrew isn’t going to be able to become an elite tight end in the NFL. That may be wishful thinking but far from out of the scope of possibility. He has the size, speed and hands to be a dominate option and I believe he gets better than last year’s numbers. Look to draft Pettigrew in round 7 of all drafts in 2011.

8. Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders, 6’5” 255 lbs, 25 Yrs Old, 5^th Season.

Despite battling injuries for most of 2010, Zach Miller still had a great season catching 60 passes for 685 yards and 5 touchdowns. Had he not been injured he would have finished with more but still did enough to make the Pro Bowl. The Raiders are definitely a team on the rise and offensive coordinator turned head coach Hue Jackson did wonders for quarterback Jason Campbell in 2010. Being that the Raiders have no quality number one wide receiving options, Zach Miller should still be the prime target in the passing game going into 2011 and is a quality TE1. With the Raiders getting better I expect Miller to do so as well and hes worth a pick in round 7 or 8 of all drafts in 2011.

9. Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints, 6’6” 260 lbs, 24 Yrs Old, 2^nd Season.

The Sleeper TE of 2011, and worth drafting. 

In only his rookie season, tight end Jimmy Graham impressed Saints head coach Sean Payton so much that they released veteran Jeremy Shockey this offseason. That’s a bold statement for a team to do that but 3^rd round pick Jimmy Graham is not someone to take lightly in drafts. He has the size and can catch but more importantly has one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Drew Brees and an offense that relies on its aerial attack. Graham should shine next season as the Saints look to get back into championship form and should be Drew Brees’ second option in the passing game behind wide receiver Marques Colston. I expect him to catch around 75 balls and be a prime target in the red zone. Jimmy Graham is a big sleeper for next year and is worth a pick in rounds 7 or 8 of fantasy drafts.

10. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots, 6’6” 265 lbs, 21 Yrs Old, 2^nd Season.

What a season rookie Rob Gronkowski had for the Patriots in 2010 huh? Despite having 8 games in which he only caught 1 pass, he finished with 42 receptions for 546 yards and 10 touchdowns, good for 5^th best tight end in fantasy football. The best part about the Gronk’s season was that most of the production came later in the year which leads me to believe he fell more into coach Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady’s favor than fellow rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez. Although Hernandez is still a threat, the Gronk is the Patriots tight end to own in 2011 for his red zone potential alone. I expect him to increase his numbers next year and be much more reliable. Expect to take Gronkowski with an 8^th or 9^th round pick in 2011 fantasy drafts.

11. Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars, 6’6” 275 lbs, 26 Yrs Old, 6^th Season.

The Jaguars slapped a franchise tag on Marcedes Lewis this offseason and could look to sign him to a long term deal, as they should. Lewis was there best receiving threat in 2010 with his size, pass catching ability and red zone prowess catching 58 balls for 700 yards and 10 touchdowns. He finished the year as the 4^th best fantasy tight end and with receiver Mike Sims-Walker on the outs, I expect Lewis to continue to produce despite playing for maybe the most boring team in all of football. Someone has to catch balls for David Garrard and being that they should play from behind more often than not, I like Marcedes Lewis as a quality TE1 for 2011 and is worth drafting with an 8^th or 9^th round pick in all drafts in 2011.

12. Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6’4” 240 lbs, 27 Yrs Old,, 8^th Season.

Winslow should grow in 2011 with growing Bucs. 

Kellen Winslow hasn’t ever had the kind of season he showed us in 2007 when he went for 82 catches, 1106 yards but with the rise of the Buccaneers in 2010, Winslow may be able to at the very least get better. Last year he had a very good season catching 66 passes, 730 yards and 5 touchdowns and as quarterback Josh Freeman gets more comfortable as the starter, Winslow should be used much more in 2011. The Bucs are a young team and with wide receiver Mike Williams becoming a real threat  last year, the Bucs are going to need Winslow to be the second option in the passing game and is definitely a low end TE1. He may not be a soldier, but he’ll help your fantasy team and is worth a pick in the 9^th round of all fantasy drafts in 2011.

Those are my top 12 options heading into 2011 as of right now. The best part of this position heading into this year is how DEEP it is. There are so many decent options that could surprise that I didn’t mention. For example, Tony Gonzalez, Chris Cooley, Todd Heap, Dustin Keller, Greg Olsen, Kevin Boss, Benjamin Watson, Brent Celek, Aaron Hernandez, Anthony Fasano, Jermaine Gresham, Tony Moeaki, John Carlson, Heath Miller, Michael Hoomanawanui and Visanthe Shiancoe. Though not all can be relied on as must start TE1’s there are more than enough options to make sure every team can have two quality options and also have a some options on waivers for when you’re in need.

I expect the tight end position to bounce back big in 2011 and like the quarterback position, every team should be able to get quality fantasy output from the position no matter when they decide to pull the trigger on one.

I will be back next week with some of my favorite sleeper options in standard drafts for 2011.

-BurL